Mongolia — FIRST BASELINE. Composite 48.4 / Functional confirmed. UN HC Türk official visit May 10-11 (first in 26 years) provides high-quality institutional primary-source evidence. Positive: first human rights defenders law in Asia-Pacific; business & human rights action plan; nuclear-free zone; death penalty abolition cited as regional model. Concerns: corruption described as 'biggest bottleneck' by civil society. UN Independent Expert on SOGI country visit announced May 18-29 — additional EQU evidence forthcoming.
Armenia — FIRST BASELINE. Composite 48.4 / Functional confirmed. First-ever EU-Armenia Summit (May 4-5): connectivity partnership signed, EUPM Armenia established, visa liberalisation dialogue ongoing. Azerbaijan-Armenia peace treaty initialled August 2025 — major BND signal. 100,000+ Nagorno-Karabakh displaced Armenians is an EMP/EQU drag. State surveillance law expansion (police live video access) and media freedom restrictions are SYS/ACC drag. Net-positive BND trajectory offsets structural SYS/ACC concerns.
Tuvalu — FIRST BASELINE. Composite 48.4 / Functional confirmed. April 14 state of emergency declared (Funafuti fuel/electricity shortage) — governance-capacity signal. UNGA 2025 advisory opinion confirms sovereignty retained if territory submerged. 90%+ of Tuvaluans applied for Australian residency. Climate-existential structural context. Active climate advocacy posture (special UN summit host pre-UNFCCC 2026).
Malaysia — FIRST BASELINE. Composite 46.9 / Functional confirmed. HRW submitted to UN Committee on Rights of the Child regarding Malaysia (May 6, in-window): abuses against migrant, refugee, and stateless children; SOGI discrimination. Expression restrictions, anti-corruption activist arrests (April 2026), protest suppression. Amnesty annual report cited 'human rights hypocrisy.' Published 46.9 consistent with mixed-rights evidence.
Trinidad and Tobago — FIRST BASELINE. Composite 48.4 / Functional confirmed. 40,000+ Venezuelan asylum seekers with no formal asylum processing system. 90+ nationals including 50+ children in arbitrary detention in northeast Syria. Ongoing LGBTQ+ discrimination and violence against women. ICCPR follow-up due November 2026. No in-window events.
Fiji — FIRST BASELINE. Composite 48.4 / Functional confirmed. FICAC accountability functioning; judicial check on PM active. Two deputy PM resignations (October 2025, ministerial integrity failures) noted as political-fragility signal. Constitutional review scheduled 2026. General elections expected late 2026-early 2027. History of military coups (2000, 2006) is structural SYS context.
Micronesia (FSM) — FIRST BASELINE. Composite 48.4 / Functional confirmed. Attending Melanesian Oceans Summit 2026. Compact of Free Association with United States. Climate vulnerability is primary structural EMP signal. No in-window compassion-relevant events.
Russia — FLOOR CONDUCT DOCUMENTATION — CEASEFIRE DAY 2. No score change. Day-2 breach confirmed: 3 civilians killed, 19 injured by Russian strikes (Kharkiv, Kherson). ~210 battlefield clashes. Russian MoD claimed 'strict observance' concurrently with documented strikes — bad-faith-INT pattern replicated from day 1. Putin accused Ukraine of delaying 1,000-prisoner exchange — blame-shifting on highest-visibility ACT signal in window while conducting strikes. Cumulative ceasefire-breach record: 5 events spanning May 5-10 (3 unilateral collapses + 2 trilateral days with confirmed breaches). Day-3 close May 11 will determine final INT floor-conduct documentation for the ceasefire window.
Conduct documented
›May 10 strikes: 3 civilians killed, 19 injured across Ukraine (Kharkiv, Kherson) during declared ceasefire (EMP/IHL)
›~210 battlefield clashes on May 10; ~10,000 drone strikes across May 9-10 per Zelenskyy (IHL)
›Russian MoD claimed 'strict observance' while documented strikes proceeded — bad-faith-INT framing day 2 (INT)
›Putin accused Ukraine of delaying 1,000-prisoner exchange — blame-shifting on ACT signal while conducting strikes (ACT/INT)
›Cumulative 5-event breach record: 3 unilateral collapses (May 5-7) + trilateral day 1 (Kharkiv, May 9) + trilateral day 2 (3 killed, May 10)
Israel — FLOOR CONDUCT DOCUMENTATION — FLOTILLA DEPORTATION CLOSURE. No score change. Activists Saif Abukeshek (Spanish-Swedish) and Thiago Avila (Brazilian) deported May 10 after ~11 days detention. Both arrived in Athens. Israeli FM called them 'professional provocateurs.' DEPORTATION RESOLVES DETENTION DURATION ONLY — it is not accountability. Floor conduct record updated: (1) Arbitrary-detention phase closed by deportation; (2) OHCHR torture/inhumane-treatment allegations (35 individuals, May 8 press release) remain open, unaddressed, and unresolved — deportation does not constitute accountability for conduct during detention. UNCAT obligations and UNCLOS jurisdiction questions remain live.
Conduct documented
›Flotilla arbitrary-detention phase CLOSED by deportation May 10 — not by accountability proceedings
Entities where published composite and reconstructed composite diverge. Tracked openly as a publication-integrity obligation.
Critical flag
·8 cycles open
Open BionicsRobotics Labs
Math-hygiene cluster unchanged at 13 entities. All cycle counts incremented by 1. Cross-index formula audit (robotics-labs + ai-labs) remains the highest-priority unresolved data-team action. Open Bionics at 8 cycles is the most senior unresolved item in the system.
Pentagon AI dispute ongoing. May 15 Phase 1 safeguard inventory delivery is next material event. Mythos cybersecurity tool carve-out noted peripherally but does not constitute a scoring event. Hold expires May 15.
Trilateral ceasefire DAY 3 CLOSE (final day). 1,000-prisoner exchange completion or failure is the single highest-signal ACT indicator remaining. Full INT scoring outcome for the window determined on day-3 evidence. Ukraine to be scored on full 3-day conduct; Russia cumulative breach record finalized. FINAL BACKFILL DAY.
Day-3 post-inauguration evidence — three-day inauguration window closes. Sulyok response, cabinet formation next steps. Day-2 evidence is confirmatory; day-3 will determine whether any new enacted actions above day-1 baseline emerge before June 9 re-assessment.
Backfill
Final day of 4-day sequential backfill (May 8-11). Complete remaining rotation queue entities.
UN Independent Expert on SOGI country visit May 18-29 — will generate additional EQU dimension evidence. Flag for 30-day re-assessment after visit concludes.
30-day post-formation re-assessment. Sulyok dismissal compliance (May 31 deadline outcome), cabinet consolidation, EU fund-release milestone progress are the decision inputs for Functional band crossing (40.0+). May 27 EU funds plan submission is an intermediate milestone.
Floor designations
·8 entities at composite 0 with documented evidence pattern
Composite scores resolving at zero — methodology disclosure
These entities have all 8 dimensions resolving at the lowest behavioral anchor (1.0/5.0) across multiple assessment cycles. Read the methodology.
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