Interpublic Group: 53 → 40 (Δ -13)
What happened
Omnicom completed acquisition of IPG on Nov 26, 2025 — IPG effectively ceased as standalone entity
Viewing archive: May 28
Compassion BenchmarkThursday, May 28, 2026No. 44
Daily Briefing
Daily compassion intelligence across 1,155 indexed entities.
Entities monitored
0
Fully assessed
0
Score changes
0
Risk signals
0
Top score changehigh
Today's analysis
The most significant editorial findings in the May 28 briefing.
01
Bolivia is the cycle's only score mover. The ACC dimension's breach of Critical is the most meaningful signal: it means the state's accountability and process capacity during an active humanitarian emergency is now classified at the same severity level as entities like Turkey and Iran on individual dimensions. The crisis arc has not peaked.
02
Three methodology categories were added or promoted in a single night, all from countries at or near the scale floor. This is not score-changing work but it is the most durable research output of the cycle — these categories will be the framework for assessing future instances of the same conduct patterns in any index.
03
OpenAI's INT dimension entering Critical at 17.5 while the composite holds at 27.5 is the AI-labs finding to track. A company can publish a credible governance framework while simultaneously removing safety language from its foundational mission and funding coalition advocacy for its own liability protection. These are not offsetting signals — they are distinct dimensions moving in opposite directions at the same time.
04
The rotation-state mismatch on Turkey (30.8 vs canonical 15.1, a 15.7pt discrepancy) is a data-integrity item requiring action before the next Turkey assessment. A stale rotation-state at 30.8 would cause the scanner to incorrectly classify Turkey as Developing-band and potentially miss appropriate priority queuing.
05
Oracle's WARN Act window opening in two days (May 30) at 0.6pt above Critical is the highest-probability near-term band-crossing candidate in the index. The methodology candidate (CLASSIFICATION-MANIPULATION-TO-AVOID-LABOR-PROTECTIONS) is pre-positioned for promotion upon first adjudication.
Signal stack not available for this briefing — see score movements below.
Score change detail
Full evidence record for entities with score changes in this cycle.
Afghanistan
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline6.3
New entry
Taliban gender apartheid: women barred from education + government employment
Evidence record
- Taliban gender apartheid: women barred from education + government employment
- 22M+ food insecurity; IRC Emergency Watchlist
- Pakistan cross-border refugee crisis
Agility Robotics
Robotics Labsmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
Carry-over anchor: Feb 19 2026 Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada commercial agreement — 7 Digit humanoids at Woodstock, Ontario, RAV4 logistics RaaS contract.
Evidence record
- Carry-over anchor: Feb 19 2026 Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada commercial agreement — 7 Digit humanoids at Woodstock, Ontario, RAV4 logistics RaaS contract.
- Carry-over: year-long evaluation pilot (development → proof-of-technology → live onsite) preceded commercial conversion.
- Carry-over: 2022 anti-weaponization pledge signatory (alongside Boston Dynamics, ANYbotics, Clearpath, Open Robotics, Unitree).
- Upcoming: ASTM humanoid safety standards convening May 27-28 2026 Boston — to be watched in next cycles.
- Carry-over: 'cooperatively safe humanoid robot to work alongside people' public commitment.
- Carry-over: GXO and Spanx Inc. pre-existing deployments without weaponization/surveillance record.
- No new material score-moving evidence in current cycle (May 7-13 window).
Andorra
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
Parliamentary co-principality with stable governance.
Evidence record
- Parliamentary co-principality with stable governance.
- Same-sex marriage legalized 2023.
- EU association agreement negotiations ongoing 2024-2025.
- Comprehensive health system; high human development index.
Apple
Fortune 500medium confidence
First baseline50
New entry
Supply chain child labor lawsuit + CfA forced labor complaint
Evidence record
- Supply chain child labor lawsuit + CfA forced labor complaint
- 2026 Supply Chain Progress Report (transparency+)
Apptronik
Robotics Labsmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
Carry-over: February 10 2026 $520M Series A-X extension; total Series A = $935M at $5.3B valuation; co-led by B Capital and Google with Mercedes-Benz, PEAK6, AT&T Ventures, John Deere, Qatar Investment Authority.
Evidence record
- Carry-over: February 10 2026 $520M Series A-X extension; total Series A = $935M at $5.3B valuation; co-led by B Capital and Google with Mercedes-Benz, PEAK6, AT&T Ventures, John Deere, Qatar Investment Authority.
- Carry-over: Apollo robot active commercial pilots at Mercedes-Benz factories, GXO Logistics warehouses, Jabil; Google co-testing with Mercedes-Benz.
- Carry-over: New humanoid model debut planned 2026; Austin facility expansion + new California office.
- Carry-over: Apptronik anti-weaponization pledge non-signatory (sub-threshold INT-erosive).
- Carry-over: No published Apollo model card or system card.
- No new material score-moving evidence in current cycle (May 7-13 window).
- Math-hygiene cluster carryforward: published 81.4 vs reconstructed 73.4 (+8.0) — largest in robotics-labs cluster.
Boeing
Fortune 500high confidence
First baseline21.9
New entry
Federal judge rejected DOJ-Boeing NPA three times
Evidence record
- Federal judge rejected DOJ-Boeing NPA three times
- Barnett whistleblower wrongful-death settlement blocked by court (sealed terms)
- Multi-front criminal/civil/class/shareholder litigation all simultaneously active
Bolivia
Countriesmedium-high confidence
30.928.4
-2.5 pts
developing
President Paz enacted law May 27 restoring executive authority to deploy armed forces in streets; simplified state-of-emergency procedures
Evidence record
- President Paz enacted law May 27 restoring executive authority to deploy armed forces in streets; simplified state-of-emergency procedures
- Four confirmed deaths from blockade-related lack of medical care (oxygen, blocked emergency vehicles)
- Clinicas de La Paz hospital oxygen reserves depleted; hospitals rationing critical supplies
- Paz declared country 'at breaking point' May 27; blockades in fourth week
- ACC dimension crosses into Critical at 20.0 — first sub-dimension Critical entry for Bolivia in current crisis arc
Boston Dynamics
Robotics Labsmedium confidence
First baseline40.6
New entry
Hyundai 30,000 Atlas units/year planned from 2028
Evidence record
- Hyundai 30,000 Atlas units/year planned from 2028
- Korean Metal Workers' Union + Kia Union blocking robot entry without labor agreement
- ISO 25785-1 standard contributor
Botswana
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
2024 peaceful democratic transition: Boko-led UDC government replaced 58-year BDP rule without crisis.
Evidence record
- 2024 peaceful democratic transition: Boko-led UDC government replaced 58-year BDP rule without crisis.
- HIV/AIDS treatment program serves as global model.
- 2019 High Court decision decriminalizing same-sex relations confirmed by Court of Appeal.
- Stable institutional infrastructure across multiple generations.
- Diamond economy structural challenges (revenue decline); rising inequality; youth unemployment — economic-strain pressures.
Brazil
Countriesmedium confidence
35.935.9
0 pts
developing
Rotation backfill: never formally assessed; first-baseline rotation maintained at 35.9 baseline
Evidence record
- Rotation backfill: never formally assessed; first-baseline rotation maintained at 35.9 baseline
- COP30 host nation (Belem, November 2026) — significant forward governance trigger
- Deforestation decreased 11% Aug 2024 - Jul 2025 — positive environmental signal
- Chamber of Deputies approved Escazú agreement — positive procedural signal on environmental rights
- HRW concerns on COP30 presidency engagement; mixed-signal pre-COP30 environment
Burkina Faso
Countrieslow confidence
First baseline25
New entry
UNGA co-sponsor (anomalous positive) vs Traoré military junta since 2022
Evidence record
- UNGA co-sponsor (anomalous positive) vs Traoré military junta since 2022
- UN $1.16B Food Systems partnership
Cabo Verde
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
One of Africa's most stable democracies (consistent peaceful elections since 1991 multiparty transition).
Evidence record
- One of Africa's most stable democracies (consistent peaceful elections since 1991 multiparty transition).
- Strong press freedom — RSF top Africa ranking.
- Comprehensive HIV/AIDS response.
- Climate-vulnerability structural drag (Sahelian drought, sea-level rise).
Cambodia
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
Amnesty International January 2026 report: 53 active scam compounds in Cambodia; 100,000-150,000 trafficked workers across Southeast Asia with Cambodia as largest hub by site count; documented forced labor, beatings, torture, sexual violence.
Evidence record
- Amnesty International January 2026 report: 53 active scam compounds in Cambodia; 100,000-150,000 trafficked workers across Southeast Asia with Cambodia as largest hub by site count; documented forced labor, beatings, torture, sexual violence.
- Hun Manet authoritarian succession: 2023 handover from Hun Sen; CPP single-party-dominant rule continuing; family/CPP-aligned ministerial roles documented.
- HRW World Report 2026 Cambodia chapter: pre-election crackdown patterns, civil society restrictions, opposition party dissolution legacy (CNRP 2017), press freedom collapse (VOD, CamboJA shutdowns).
- US State Department 2024 Trafficking in Persons report: Cambodia at Tier 3 placement (lowest tier) — government does not fully meet minimum standards and is not making significant efforts.
- UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Cambodia: continued documentation of restrictions on civil and political rights.
- Sam Rainsy and other opposition figures remain in exile or face legal proceedings; political prisoner cases documented.
- Population scale: ~17M; first agent baseline establishment; high-importance never-assessed entity per scanner.
- Math reconstruction clean: AWR/EMP/ACT/EQU/BND/ACC/SYS/INT all at 1.5 yield composite 12.5 (no discrepancy).
Canada
Countriesmedium confidence
84.684.6
0 pts
exemplary
Rotation backfill: last assessed April 27 (27 days)
Evidence record
- Rotation backfill: last assessed April 27 (27 days)
- EMRIP technical advice (May 2 2026) advising Canada to eliminate Indian Act second-generation status cut-off (UNDRIP violation) — negative sub-threshold accountability signal
- Canadian Human Rights Tribunal $8.5B Ontario First Nations reform agreement (March 2026) — positive accountability/equity signal
- Mixed-signal dual-weighting: continuing UNDRIP gap (negative) vs. tribunal-ordered structural reform (positive); net direction stable
- Drift-guard: published 84.6 used as baseline (prior scanner referenced 79.6; index canonical is 84.6)
China
Countrieshigh confidence
19.519.5
0 pts
critical
Xi-Putin 47-page Multipolar World declaration signed May 20 — China formally adopts Russia's 'root causes' Ukraine framing
Evidence record
- Xi-Putin 47-page Multipolar World declaration signed May 20 — China formally adopts Russia's 'root causes' Ukraine framing
- Russia described China's stance as 'objective and unbiased' — accepted publicly
- Power of Siberia 2 pipeline: no timeline (weak restraint signal, not a reversal)
- Methodology category continuity: state-facilitation-of-allied-war-crimes-via-dual-use-supply now has second concrete evidence event
Colombia
Countriesmedium confidence
35.935.9
0 pts
developing
OHCHR Expert Mechanism preliminary findings (May 14 2026): systemic and structural racism against people of African descent confirmed; racial profiling and lethal police violence widespread; structural reform recommendations issued
Evidence record
- OHCHR Expert Mechanism preliminary findings (May 14 2026): systemic and structural racism against people of African descent confirmed; racial profiling and lethal police violence widespread; structural reform recommendations issued
- OHCHR second concurrent concern stream: March 2026 report documenting urgent action needed to end violence against human rights defenders in Colombia
- Sub-threshold -3.5 accumulator from prior cycles maintained — under conservative reading does not cross 5pt apply threshold this cycle even with second OHCHR thread
- Drift-guard note: working baseline now 35.9 per current index (prior cycles documented 44.5 as assessor-confirmed baseline; index discrepancy resolved in favor of published per stale-baseline drift guard)
- Stronger institutional anchor expected at OHCHR full HRC report (September/October 2026) — hold apply judgment for that primary signal
Croatia
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
2026 Liberties Rule-of-Law Report: Croatia classified among 'Dismantlers' (alongside Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia).
Evidence record
- 2026 Liberties Rule-of-Law Report: Croatia classified among 'Dismantlers' (alongside Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia).
- Two-thirds of judicial reform recommendations show no progress.
- Attacks on journalists documented.
- Insufficient SLAPP protection.
- Growing political pressure on independent institutions.
CVS Health
Fortune 500medium confidence
First baseline
-4.4 pts
House Judiciary Committee report (January 2026): CVS Caremark may have violated federal antitrust laws; targeted competitors and independent pharmacies.
Evidence record
- House Judiciary Committee report (January 2026): CVS Caremark may have violated federal antitrust laws; targeted competitors and independent pharmacies.
- Federal audit (March 2026): CVS Caremark accused of overbilling federal employees' program by $615M (2018-2021).
- HIPAA probe: CVS allegedly used patient data for lobbying against Louisiana state bill.
- $1.3M political TV ads to fight PBM reform in Tennessee.
- Healthcare-sector alert active (UnitedHealth, J&J, Cigna concurrent regulatory pressure).
Ethiopia
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline17.2
New entry
Genocide Watch May 15 — escalating Oromia/Benishangul-Gumuz violence
Evidence record
- Genocide Watch May 15 — escalating Oromia/Benishangul-Gumuz violence
- 3.3M IDPs (69% conflict-driven) per IOM/UNHCR
- Transitional justice stalled; media crackdown pre-elections
- IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026
Figure AI
Robotics Labsmedium confidence
First baseline40.6
New entry
Figure 03 BMW Spartanburg pilot
Evidence record
- Figure 03 BMW Spartanburg pilot
- No major safety incidents
- Pre-scale, labor-displacement dimension not yet active
General Motors
Fortune 500medium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
GM laid off 500-600 IT workers (May 11-12, 2026) primarily in Austin TX and Warren MI.
Evidence record
- GM laid off 500-600 IT workers (May 11-12, 2026) primarily in Austin TX and Warren MI.
- Layoffs framed as 'skills swap' toward AI-native roles.
- Laid-off employees reported 'ominous email' and concerns about severance (CNBC May 12).
- Latest in 18-month white-collar layoff series.
- Composite at 40.6 — 0.6 above Functional floor.
Hungary
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
+3.9 pts
May 12 2026 (in-window): Hungary's new government led by Peter Magyar took oath of office in parliament. Sulyok formally appointed 16 ministers at Sándor Palace. Cabinet decentralized from 12 (Orbán) to 16 ministries with new standalone health, environmental protection, and education ministries.
Evidence record
- May 12 2026 (in-window): Hungary's new government led by Peter Magyar took oath of office in parliament. Sulyok formally appointed 16 ministers at Sándor Palace. Cabinet decentralized from 12 (Orbán) to 16 ministries with new standalone health, environmental protection, and education ministries.
- May 13 2026 (in-window): Government held first official meeting in Opusztaszer (symbolic Great Plains site associated with founding of Hungarian state). Officials consulted water management and agricultural experts on current drought conditions before formal session. Cabinet expected to adopt urgent short-term emergency measures alongside medium- and long-term water management plans.
- May 13 2026 (in-window): Government ordered a comprehensive, immediate audit of ministries and state-owned companies, AND suspended payments and commitments beyond normal operational management — structural anti-state-capture conduct.
- May 13 2026 (in-window): Magyar stated administration's focus is restoring public trust, improving governance, rebuilding Hungary's international ties. Top priority: rebuilding rule of law and restoring checks and balances. Top foreign policy priority: strengthening Hungary's western alliances.
- April 2026 (carry-over context): Magyar announced he would halt Hungary's withdrawal from the ICC (initiated by Orbán) and stated that ICC-warranted leaders would be arrested if they entered Hungary — direct reversal of Orbán policy.
- May 9-11 inauguration window (carry-over): Day-1 enacted actions credited in May 9 +9.4 upgrade (TV2 dismissal, EU flag, Sulyok deadline announcement, €17B EU funds priority, 27 rule-of-law super-milestones framework) remain in effect; cabinet operational completion May 12-13 confirms day-1 commitments as enacted.
- Fidesz opposition continues (Gulyas condemned Magyar's Sulyok demand as 'unworthy of a prime minister') — Tisza two-thirds supermajority (141/199) preserves Magyar's mandate; obstructionist opposition does not reduce mandate.
India
Countriesmedium confidence
22.722.7
0 pts
developing
No new India-specific evidence in May 24 24-hour window
Evidence record
- No new India-specific evidence in May 24 24-hour window
- Carry-forward: 2026 World Press Freedom Index 157th (down 6 from 151st); Modi Norway press confrontation May 18-20
- Sub-threshold -1.3 accumulator from prior cycles maintained
- No band-boundary proximity emergency
Indonesia
Countriesmedium confidence
35.935.9
0 pts
developing
Rotation backfill: first-baseline Indonesia confirmed at 35.9
Evidence record
- Rotation backfill: first-baseline Indonesia confirmed at 35.9
- Indonesia banned xAI Grok following CSAM scandal — positive AI-governance regulatory action paired with Malaysia
- Fourth-most-populous country; AI regulatory leadership in archipelago region
- No new Indonesia-specific evidence in May 24 24-hour window
Iran
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline9.4
New entry
2,000+ executions 2025 (highest since 1980s)
Evidence record
- 2,000+ executions 2025 (highest since 1980s)
- 28 protester deaths Dec 31-Jan 3; internet near-total shutdown
- UN HRC fact-finding mission extended; UNGA climate vote against
Italy
Countrieshigh confidence
4646
0 pts
functional
No new Italy-specific evidence in May 25 24-hour window
Evidence record
- No new Italy-specific evidence in May 25 24-hour window
- May 24 first-baseline Dismantler apply (-4.0) absorbed Liberties + anti-SLAPP + CIVICUS evidence
- Per second-event-at-floor convention: no second apply without categorically distinct trigger
Jamaica
Countrieslow confidence
First baseline43.8
New entry
UNGA core co-sponsor
Evidence record
- UNGA core co-sponsor
Johnson & Johnson
Fortune 500medium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
67,623 active talcum powder lawsuits in NJ MDL (May 2026).
Evidence record
- 67,623 active talcum powder lawsuits in NJ MDL (May 2026).
- $8B bankruptcy settlement rejected March 2025.
- $9B current offer; up to $11B projected ultimate payout.
- December 2025 Baltimore verdict: $1.5B single-plaintiff (largest-ever).
- Congress moving to prevent future bankruptcy shield attempts.
- LA trial: J&J accused of 'hiding asbestos risks in baby powder for decades.'
Johnson & Johnson
Fortune 500medium confidence
First baseline37.5
New entry
$700M settlement with 42 states + DC over talc safety misrepresentation
Evidence record
- $700M settlement with 42 states + DC over talc safety misrepresentation
- 67,623 individual lawsuits still pending in NJ
- No admission of wrongdoing — settlement-without-acknowledgment pattern
Kenya
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline34.4
New entry
UNGA co-sponsor (INT+) vs domestic protest crackdown, enforced disappearances (ACT/ACC-)
Evidence record
- UNGA co-sponsor (INT+) vs domestic protest crackdown, enforced disappearances (ACT/ACC-)
Malaysia
Countriesmedium confidence
46.946.9
0 pts
functional
Rotation backfill: first-baseline Malaysia confirmed at 46.9
Evidence record
- Rotation backfill: first-baseline Malaysia confirmed at 46.9
- Malaysia banned xAI Grok outright following CSAM scandal — decisive positive AI-governance regulatory action
- Positive sub-threshold accumulator: AI safety regulation enforcement leadership for Southeast Asia
- No new Malaysia-specific evidence in May 24 24-hour window
Marshall Islands
Countriesmedium confidence
39.139.1
0 pts
developing
Co-sponsor of Vanuatu UNGA ICJ climate resolution; vote underway May 20
Evidence record
- Co-sponsor of Vanuatu UNGA ICJ climate resolution; vote underway May 20
- Boundary-sensitive at 39.1 (0.9pt below Functional floor)
- Pre-vote baseline confirmed May 19
Mauritius
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
Stable parliamentary democracy; upper-middle-income economic governance.
Evidence record
- Stable parliamentary democracy; upper-middle-income economic governance.
- 2024 ICJ ruling on Chagos sovereignty; UK transfer of Chagos sovereignty negotiated October 2024.
- 2023 Supreme Court decriminalization of same-sex relations.
- Concerns: media independence pressures; opposition complaints about institutional capture; 2024 election irregularity claims.
Mexico
Countriesmedium confidence
32.832.8
0 pts
developing
No new Mexico-specific evidence in May 24 24-hour window
Evidence record
- No new Mexico-specific evidence in May 24 24-hour window
- Carry-forward: cartel drone warfare in Guerrero displaced 800-1,000 families (May 10-16); government suppression of displacement figures
- Sheinbaum judicial reform (popular election of judges) in effect; UN Human Rights Chief Turk criticism
- 250,000+ households displaced by crime in 2024 with no registry
- Sub-threshold -1.5 accumulator from prior cycles maintained
Micronesia
Countriesmedium confidence
48.448.4
0 pts
functional
Co-sponsor of Vanuatu UNGA ICJ climate resolution; vote underway May 20
Evidence record
- Co-sponsor of Vanuatu UNGA ICJ climate resolution; vote underway May 20
- Pre-vote first-baseline confirmed May 19
Mongolia
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
UN HCHR Volker Türk visited Mongolia May 10-11 — first UN Human Rights Chief visit in 26 years.
Evidence record
- UN HCHR Volker Türk visited Mongolia May 10-11 — first UN Human Rights Chief visit in 26 years.
- Türk praised Mongolia's recent adoption of region's first law protecting human rights defenders.
- Mongolia highlighted as model for nuclear-weapons-free zone status AND death-penalty abolition.
- Concerns raised: corruption ('biggest bottleneck to development'); climate change (dzuds, floods, droughts); digital technology impact on youth.
- UN Independent Expert on SOGI (Graeme Reid) country visit May 18-29 — EQU evidence generation forthcoming.
Myanmar
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline
0 pts
May 12 (in-window): Junta airstrike on opposition-run school in Oe Htein Kwin village, Sagaing Region — 22 students + 2 teachers killed (Moemaka).
Evidence record
- May 12 (in-window): Junta airstrike on opposition-run school in Oe Htein Kwin village, Sagaing Region — 22 students + 2 teachers killed (Moemaka).
- May 7 (anchor): Hospital airstrike in Winmana village, Kani Township, Sagaing.
- Daily airstrike pattern: continues across Sagaing, Chin State, Rakhine State, Karen State (Moemaka casualty tracker).
- HRW 2026 World Report Myanmar chapter documents ongoing civilian targeting pattern.
- Pattern: systematic targeting of civilian-protected sites (schools, hospitals, markets) across three consecutive weeks.
Nepal
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
New RSP government (Balen Shah) won landslide March 2026 snap election after September 2025 Gen Z protests.
Evidence record
- New RSP government (Balen Shah) won landslide March 2026 snap election after September 2025 Gen Z protests.
- 76 killed by police during September 2025 protests — critical prior-conduct anchor.
- HRW, Amnesty, ICJ urged new government (April 30) to address accountability, judicial independence, fundamental freedoms.
- NHRC submitted priority recommendations to government May 8.
- JURIST (May 2026): Rights groups press Nepal government after deadly protests, demand justice and reform.
- Transitional justice for conflict-era violations unresolved; May 2025 controversial appointments opposed by victims.
- Himalayan Times: 'Nepal: a model or outlier?' analysis on democratic erosion risk.
Nicaragua
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline9.4
New entry
5,000+ CSO closures since 2018
Evidence record
- 5,000+ CSO closures since 2018
- 400+ nationality strippings
- USCIRF authoritarian triad
Nigeria
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
HRW World Report 2026 Nigeria chapter (anchor): Boko Haram/JAS resurgence in Borno (May 2025 Mallam Karamti/Kwatandashi 57+ killed, ~70 missing; Sept 2025 Darul Jamal Bama LGA 60+ killed); IPOB gunmen killings in Imo State; ISWAP northeast operations; security force airstrike civilian deaths.
Evidence record
- HRW World Report 2026 Nigeria chapter (anchor): Boko Haram/JAS resurgence in Borno (May 2025 Mallam Karamti/Kwatandashi 57+ killed, ~70 missing; Sept 2025 Darul Jamal Bama LGA 60+ killed); IPOB gunmen killings in Imo State; ISWAP northeast operations; security force airstrike civilian deaths.
- May 4 2026 (carry-over): Borno Police Commissioner public anti-torture warning — institutional acknowledgment.
- Tinubu VAPP (Violence Against Persons Prohibition) Act review continuing.
- Population scale: ~220M (Africa's most populous country); 8-day rotation gap closure.
- 2024 State Department Human Rights Reports cumulative baseline: security force abuses, prison conditions, judicial inefficiency.
- Math-hygiene resolution: canonical composite now 23.4 matches dimension-mean reconstruction; developing-band placement consequently canonical.
North Korea
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline0
New entry
All indicators floor-state per OHCHR/HRW 2026
Evidence record
- All indicators floor-state per OHCHR/HRW 2026
Pakistan
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
-2.8 pts
HRCP 2025 annual report (May 4, 2026): 273 new enforced disappearance cases (COIED-recorded; actual likely higher); intimidation/self-censorship climate; widening rights gap.
Evidence record
- HRCP 2025 annual report (May 4, 2026): 273 new enforced disappearance cases (COIED-recorded; actual likely higher); intimidation/self-censorship climate; widening rights gap.
- Pakistan Today coverage of HRCP report: shrinking freedoms; rising violence in 2025.
- HRW World Report 2026 Pakistan: intensified crackdown on media, opposition and civil society in 2025.
- Afghan refugee expulsion: 531,700 Afghans coerced to leave Pakistan (HRCP); HRW 'Forced Returns Expose Afghans to Persecution, Destitution' (March 2025).
- Ahmadi religious-minority violence: man beaten to death by mob (April, Karachi); doctor shot dead (May, Sargodha).
- Global Gender Gap: ranks 145/148. 6,500+ GBV cases.
- Genocide Watch May 2026 country report active.
Palestine
Countriesmedium confidence
2525
0 pts
developing
Microsoft Azure/Unit 8200 finding: ~200M hours of intercepted Palestinian phone calls — strengthens case Palestine is target rather than perpetrator of mass surveillance
Evidence record
- Microsoft Azure/Unit 8200 finding: ~200M hours of intercepted Palestinian phone calls — strengthens case Palestine is target rather than perpetrator of mass surveillance
- Categorical band-difference baseline mismatch: RS=20.0 floor vs INDEX=25.0 Developing — cycle 2 of methodology review
- Methodology ambiguity: floor designation criteria for capacity-constrained victim-states
Philippines
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline37.5
New entry
UNGA co-sponsor INT positive vs domestic EJK/press freedom counterweights
Evidence record
- UNGA co-sponsor INT positive vs domestic EJK/press freedom counterweights
Poland
Countriesmedium confidence
42.242.2
0 pts
functional
Polish parliament selected 15 new KRS members May 18, defying Constitutional Tribunal injunction; new membership: 13 judiciary-nominated candidates + 1 PiS + 1 Konfederacja (per statute)
Evidence record
- Polish parliament selected 15 new KRS members May 18, defying Constitutional Tribunal injunction; new membership: 13 judiciary-nominated candidates + 1 PiS + 1 Konfederacja (per statute)
- KRS four-year terms expired May 12 — Tusk government used term-expiry alternative path bypassing Nawrocki presidential veto of primary reform bill
- Positive governance event (judiciary-nominated members replacing PiS-era political appointees) competing against procedural concern (defying CT injunction)
- Constitutional Tribunal that issued the injunction is itself of contested legitimacy (PiS-era staffing) — defying it may be constitutionally defensible but introduces procedural rule-of-law tension
- Sub-threshold -1.8 downward accumulator from prior cycles is now competed by this positive signal; net direction uncertain at boundary
Russia
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline
0 pts
May 11-12 overnight (in-window): Zelensky says Russia fired over 200 drones at Ukraine as truce expires (Al Jazeera May 12). Mass-drone-strike pattern resumed within hours of ceasefire expiry.
Evidence record
- May 11-12 overnight (in-window): Zelensky says Russia fired over 200 drones at Ukraine as truce expires (Al Jazeera May 12). Mass-drone-strike pattern resumed within hours of ceasefire expiry.
- May 12 (in-window): ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment — 174 combat engagements; 225 controlled air bombs; 5,516 kamikaze drones used (cumulative figures); residential buildings and a kindergarten struck in Kyiv region; energy infrastructure struck in Mykolaiv.
- May 12 (in-window): Russia-Ukraine war updates report intensified offensive operations following ceasefire expiry (EMPR Media May 12).
- Kremlin posture: Putin signaled readiness to meet Zelensky but provided no format, date, or location — performative diplomacy concurrent with intensified offensive operations.
- STRUCTURAL FINDING: Post-format offensive tempo exceeded pre-ceasefire baseline. Combined with May 11 strategic-format-exploitation finding, Russia exhibits a complete bad-faith ceasefire-format cycle: exploit during + surge after.
- NEW CONDUCT CATEGORY: 'post-format-offensive-surge' first articulated in this cycle as the structural companion to 'strategic-format-exploitation.'
Saudi Arabia
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline15.6
New entry
UNGA climate vote against
Evidence record
- UNGA climate vote against
- UN NGO Committee election alongside authoritarian cluster
- Migrant worker / dissent suppression
Senegal
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline
0 pts
First criminal conviction under anti-LGBTQ law (April 10): 6-year sentence — moved law from legislative to judicial reality.
Evidence record
- First criminal conviction under anti-LGBTQ law (April 10): 6-year sentence — moved law from legislative to judicial reality.
- UNAIDS: 36% rise in HIV infections since 2010; 79% treatment rate threatened.
- 430 USAID-funded community organizations halted due to US foreign aid freeze (compound healthcare-access negative).
- New Humanitarian (May 5): law directly criminalizes HIV infection, hitting healthcare access — multi-dimension negative (EQU + ACT + BND).
- OHCHR High Commissioner urged Senegal not to sign law (March).
- International response building: UNAIDS, Outright International, UN treaty bodies condemning enforcement.
- Senegal continues to engage with international bodies (sign of partial accountability infrastructure).
Sierra Leone
Countrieslow confidence
First baseline34.4
New entry
UNGA core co-sponsor
Evidence record
- UNGA core co-sponsor
Timor-Leste
Countriesmedium confidence
39.139.1
0 pts
developing
No new evidence today; first-baseline confirmed May 19 (post-ASEAN-accession integration arc)
Evidence record
- No new evidence today; first-baseline confirmed May 19 (post-ASEAN-accession integration arc)
Turkey
Countriesmedium confidence
30.828.9
-1.9 pts
developing
İmamoğlu (Istanbul Mayor) arrested March 19 with 2 district mayors + 100 municipal staff
Evidence record
- İmamoğlu (Istanbul Mayor) arrested March 19 with 2 district mayors + 100 municipal staff
- May 8: İmamoğlu's X account (9.7M followers) blocked in Turkey
- April 22 Amnesty: Turkey deepened rights crackdown and impunity in 2025
- March 18 ECtHR: Turkey violated rights of 93 detained over alleged Gülen links (positive ACC counterweight)
Ukraine
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline
0 pts
May 11-12 (in-window): Russia fired 200+ drones at Ukraine as truce expired (Al Jazeera). Ukraine was the recipient of the post-format surge, not the initiator.
Evidence record
- May 11-12 (in-window): Russia fired 200+ drones at Ukraine as truce expired (Al Jazeera). Ukraine was the recipient of the post-format surge, not the initiator.
- May 12 (in-window): ISW assessment documents Ukrainian counterstrikes on Russian command posts and logistics in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia. Defensive-scope attribution; no civilian-targeting evidence.
- May 12 (in-window): Multi-source reporting on post-ceasefire phase confirms asymmetric breach attribution (Russia surge; Ukraine defensive response).
- Carry-forward pressure: 3-day breach-free conduct (May 9-11) + 1,000-prisoner list submission (May 11) confirmed at May 11 close. ACT +4.0; INT +3.5; reconstructed 53.1 vs published 50.0; delta 3.1 sub-threshold per v1.2.
- Prisoner exchange non-completion: attributable to Russian non-readiness and coordination breakdown, not Ukrainian conduct failure. List-submission record retained as partial ACT credit.
UnitedHealth Group
Fortune 500medium confidence
First baseline
-3.4 pts
DOJ criminal investigation confirmed: WSJ reported one day after CEO Andrew Witty's resignation (May 14, 2025). UnitedHealth confirmed proactive outreach to DOJ and compliance with formal criminal and civil requests (UnitedHealth statement).
Evidence record
- DOJ criminal investigation confirmed: WSJ reported one day after CEO Andrew Witty's resignation (May 14, 2025). UnitedHealth confirmed proactive outreach to DOJ and compliance with formal criminal and civil requests (UnitedHealth statement).
- CEO Andrew Witty resigned May 14, 2025. Stephen Hemsley returned as CEO (previously led 2006-2017). UnitedHealth suspended 2025 financial outlook.
- Stock down ~50% from peak.
- Investigation focus: how UnitedHealthcare records diagnoses that trigger extra payments to Medicare Advantage plans — allegedly billions in additional federal funds for diagnoses patients were never treated for.
- New CEO Stephen Hemsley addressed investors: 'We have gotten things wrong.'
- Investor lawsuit filed alleging hiding of strategy to deny medical care.
- Congressional breakup legislation moving (UnitedHealth/Optum).
Vanuatu
Countriesmedium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
Vanuatu's UN General Assembly climate resolution scheduled for May 20 vote.
Evidence record
- Vanuatu's UN General Assembly climate resolution scheduled for May 20 vote.
- Final text released May 1; resolution operationalizes ICJ Advisory Opinion on climate obligations.
- Core support group: Netherlands, Kenya, Singapore, Barbados, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Jamaica, Philippines.
- Pacific students documented climate court advocacy (Amnesty, May 2026).
- Vanuatu described as 'leading on climate, lagging on gender' — domestic violence endemic.
- Boundary watch: 35.9 Developing; 4.1 below Functional floor (40.0) — internal reconstruction shows narrowing gap.
Venezuela
Countrieshigh confidence
First baseline12.5
New entry
Post-election: 25 deaths, 1,800 detained
Evidence record
- Post-election: 25 deaths, 1,800 detained
- Maduro authoritarian consolidation
Walmart
Fortune 500medium confidence
First baseline
0 pts
WARN Act filings: 2,302 workers affected across 5 states (latest through May 1, 2026).
Evidence record
- WARN Act filings: 2,302 workers affected across 5 states (latest through May 1, 2026).
- 250+ NLRB cases since 2001 (ongoing pattern).
- Worker surveillance technology concerns documented in labor reports.
- Unreasonable quota allegations per labor reports.
- Responsible-recruitment commitment progress (2026 target year for supplier labor practice standards) — forward-watch indicator.
xAI
Ai Labshigh confidence
First baseline11.7
New entry
Grok generated CSAM and nonconsensual sexualized images at scale
Evidence record
- Grok generated CSAM and nonconsensual sexualized images at scale
- 35+ state AGs, CA AG cease-and-desist, EU/UK/Ireland investigations, Malaysia/Indonesia bans, French raid
- Class action Doe 1 et al filed in USDC NDCA; documents show safety team 'tiny, overstretched, sidelined'
- xAI actively litigating against California and Colorado AI transparency/safety laws (root-cause inverse)
- Becomes index's clearest Critical-band entity in three-tier AI safety governance spectrum
Deere & Company
Fortune 500medium confidence
56.248.1
-8.1 pts
functional
598 Iowa workers laid off 2025; additional 238 Midwest layoffs announced
Evidence record
- 598 Iowa workers laid off 2025; additional 238 Midwest layoffs announced
- Salaried-employee pay freeze for FY2026 including executives — I3 positive internal consistency signal
- 4,500+ cumulative job cuts since 2015 — 'forever layoff' pattern
- Mexico operations expansion concurrent with US job cuts — I2/I4 inconsistency
- $20B committed over next decade for US manufacturing — AC4 positive
- Gradual worker recall beginning 2026 as demand recovers — AC5 positive
IBM
Fortune 500high confidence
62.551.3
-11.2 pts
establishedfunctional
$17M DOJ FCA settlement (April 10, 2026) — first-ever FCA resolution under Civil Rights Fraud Initiative
Evidence record
- $17M DOJ FCA settlement (April 10, 2026) — first-ever FCA resolution under Civil Rights Fraud Initiative
- DOJ allegations: race/sex-based workforce representation goals, DEI-tied incentive compensation, discriminatory interview slates and program access over 7 years
- Partial positive: IBM earned cooperation credit for early disclosure and voluntary remedial measures
- Published 3.5x8 uniform score is Gen-2 methodology artifact — not evidence-derived
Interpublic Group
Fortune 500medium confidence
5340
-13 pts
functionaldeveloping
Omnicom completed acquisition of IPG on Nov 26, 2025 — IPG effectively ceased as standalone entity
Evidence record
- Omnicom completed acquisition of IPG on Nov 26, 2025 — IPG effectively ceased as standalone entity
- 800 employees laid off Q3 2025; 135k sq ft office space vacated pre-close
- $1.5B synergy target doubled post-close; ~3,000 additional job cuts projected 2026-27
- 4,000+ total headcount reductions anticipated through network consolidation
- FTC approval conditioned on anti-steering clause regarding ideology-based ad spend — structural values-alignment test
Macy's
Fortune 500medium confidence
5341.3
-11.7 pts
functional
1,050 supply-chain workers permanently laid off — Cheshire and South Windsor CT warehouses closing by April 30, 2026
Evidence record
- 1,050 supply-chain workers permanently laid off — Cheshire and South Windsor CT warehouses closing by April 30, 2026
- 150-store closure trajectory by 2028 under 'Bold New Chapter' restructuring
- 66 stores closed in 2025, 14 additional in 2026 across 11 states
- No union representation, no bumping rights — B1/B4/I3 floor evidence
- Macy's closures driving 274% industry-wide retail layoff surge
Score movements
Entities with score changes this cycle, followed by confirmed positions.
Sector findings
Patterns emerging across indexed sectors in the May 28 briefing.
Countries — Governments
- ›The three floor-entity methodology events (Israel, Russia, Iran) represent the benchmark's most sophisticated documentary layer to date. The AUTHORIZED-RESUMPTION-WITH-SYSTEMATIC-DENIAL category captures a pattern distinct from prior wartime-access-denial arcs: nominal compliance with corridor authorization is paired with a 59% execution-level denial rate. This requires a different analytical response than outright blockade, which is why the sub-category matters.
- ›Bolivia is the only non-floor developing-band country to move this cycle. It remains in the Developing band but the trajectory is unambiguously downward: five scored events in ten days with no resolution signal.
- ›Hungary and the United States both hold at boundary-sensitive positions (Hungary 50.0 / US 23.4) with active sub-threshold accumulators. Both face imminent events with pre-committed scoring protocols.
- ›Turkey's multi-city protest expansion is documented as a forward signal. The scoring question — whether mass civic resistance changes the state's compassion profile — is held pending state response. If the government concedes, that scores positively. If it escalates, that scores negatively. The current hold is not indecision; it is event-discipline.
AI Labs
- ›OpenAI's dimension rebalance (AWR +2.5, ACT +2.5, BND -2.5, INT -2.5) at net-zero composite reflects a genuine structural split in governance trajectory. The Frontier Governance Framework is the most comprehensive public safety documentation OpenAI has produced; the mission language deletion and front-group activity are simultaneous erosion signals. These will not net to zero forever — a direction will eventually dominate.
- ›Anthropic's band-crossing-proposed hold at 58.1 (1.9pt below Established) is now in its seventh-plus cycle. The DC Circuit ruling remains the binary trigger. No new event in the May 27-28 window modified the equilibrium. The hold is appropriate.
Fortune 500
- ›Oracle is the index's primary watch entity. The WARN Act window opening May 30 at 0.6pt above Critical is the narrowest boundary margin in the current Fortune 500 cluster. The methodology candidate for CLASSIFICATION-MANIPULATION-TO-AVOID-LABOR-PROTECTIONS is structurally important because, if promoted, it would apply to any employer that reclassifies workers to reduce statutory protection coverage — a category broader than Oracle.
Floor designations
·8 entities at composite 0 with documented evidence patternComposite scores resolving at zero — methodology disclosure
These entities have all 8 dimensions resolving at the lowest behavioral anchor (1.0/5.0) across multiple assessment cycles. Read the methodology.
Ai Labs
Character AI
BNDACCEMPINT
Ai Labs
Palantir AI
AWREMPACCEQUINT
Ai Labs
xAI/Grok
AWREMPACCINT
Countries
Israel
AWREMPEQUBNDACCINT
Countries
Myanmar
AWREMPEQUBNDACCINT
Countries
South Sudan
AWRACTEQUACCSYSINT
Countries
Sudan
AWRACTEQUBNDACCINT
Robotics Labs
Ghost Robotics
BNDACCINT
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