Scoring Outlook

Q2 2026 earnings call — material DOJ disclosures, investor-facing admissions about probe scope, indictment, or settlement announcements are scored triggers under Accountability and Integrity dimensions.

NHTSA's end-of-July 2026 deadline for robotaxi operators to fix emergency-responder detection.

The natural seasonal peak for the current Ebola outbreak runs through July 31; documented government obstruction of WHO response corridors is the next trigger toward the absolute floor.

The natural seasonal peak for the current Ebola outbreak closes. Documented government obstruction of WHO response corridors is the trigger toward the absolute floor.

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window closes. 1,561 cases and 506 deaths on July 6 — fastest 3-day growth in outbreak history. Documented government obstruction of WHO response corridors is the floor-crossing trigger toward 0 of 100.

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window active. 1,406 cases and 438 deaths. Multi-continent spread confirmed (Uganda, France, Germany). Documented government obstruction of WHO response corridors is the floor-crossing trigger toward 0 of 100.

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window active. 1,333-plus cases and 399-plus deaths as of July 2. France-imported case June 24 is the active EU-country import chain. Documented government obstruction of WHO response corridors is the floor-crossing trigger toward 0 of 100.

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window — active. France and Germany imported cases confirmed; US evacuation underway. Documented government obstruction of WHO response corridors is the floor-crossing trigger toward 0 of 100. Contact tracing at approximately 45 percent; no a…

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window — active. Outbreak spread to fourth province Haut-Uele on June 30, now bordering South Sudan. Documented government obstruction of WHO response corridors is the floor-crossing trigger toward 0 of 100.

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window — now active. 1,155 cases and 304 deaths as of June 25. M23 territory overlap with WHO response corridors in North Kivu is the secondary trigger for attributing obstruction to Rwanda.

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window. 1,155 cases and 304 deaths as of June 25. M23 territory overlap with WHO response corridors in North Kivu is the secondary trigger for attributing obstruction to Rwanda.

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window. First EU-imported case confirmed in France June 24. M23 territory overlap with WHO response corridors in North Kivu is the secondary trigger for attributing obstruction to Rwanda.

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window. M23 territory overlap with WHO response corridors in North Kivu is the secondary trigger for attributing obstruction to Rwanda.

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window; 1,003 cases / 254 deaths as of Jun 22 (second-largest outbreak on record); no approved Bundibugyo vaccine; 70+ medics infected; contact tracing at 45% of 90% containment threshold; M23 territory overlapping WHO response corridors is t…

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window; 896 cases / 232 deaths as of latest data; 70+ medics infected; Uganda cross-border spread confirmed; no approved Bundibugyo vaccine; M23 territory overlapping WHO response corridors is the secondary conversion trigger for DRC own-cond…

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window (now at most 5 weeks away); Africa CDC worst-in-history warning active; contact tracing below 20%; no approved Bundibugyo vaccine; Mongbwalu burial-team hostage situation unresolved. State obstruction of WHO-led response is the convers…

July natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window (now 1-5 weeks away); Africa CDC worst-in-history warning active; contact tracing below 20%; no Bundibugyo vaccine; state obstruction of WHO-led response is the conversion trigger for a floor-designation proposal from 2.3. Mongbwalu bu…

Natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window (2-6 weeks from June 18); Africa CDC worst-in-history warning active; state obstruction of WHO-led response is the conversion trigger for a floor-designation proposal from 2.3. Burial team hostage event (Mongbwalu) is a leading indicator of…

WFP July 31 operational horizon; $129M funding gap; Phase 5 famine-zone expansion in Borno would open a downgrade proposal pathway from 21.9 to sub-Critical.

Natural Bundibugyo Ebola peak window; state obstruction of WHO-led response would constitute the conversion trigger for a downgrade proposal from the near-floor Critical position.

WFP July operational horizon ($129M funding gap); service disruption in Borno or Phase 5 famine-zone expansion would open a downgrade proposal pathway from 21.9 to sub-Critical.

Natural Ebola July peak window; contact tracing below 20%; displacement camp transmission active. State obstruction of externally-led response is the scored-conduct conversion trigger for a DRC proposal

WFP $129M funding gap through July; 15,000 at IPC Phase 5 in Borno. Service disruption or Phase 5 expansion would open a downgrade proposal at 21.9 (1.9pt above Critical boundary)

Ebola peak window structural review — Bundibugyo outbreak in displacement camp setting with no approved vaccine; July 31 is the monitoring deadline; state obstruction of WHO/Africa CDC response is conversion trigger

Ebola outbreak July peak window structural review — Bundibugyo strain in Ituri province; documented state obstruction is conversion trigger from natural-disaster-overlay to scored conduct event

July natural peak window for Bundibugyo Ebola strain in Ituri — 18 health zones affected, no approved vaccine, 676/136 as of June 12. Documented state obstruction of international response before this date converts the natural-disaster-overlay hold to a scored downward event.

DRC Ebola July peak window structural review deadline. Natural-disaster-overlay hold reassessment; any verified state obstruction of WHO/MSF Bundibugyo response before this date is an immediate conversion trigger for near-floor deepening.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window through July. 635 cases / 127 deaths with +37 single-day surge; 18 health zones; no approved Bundibugyo vaccine. Documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at the near-floor 2.3 composite. T…

Ebola Kampala and Wakiso urban spread peak window through July. Cases rising from June 6 baseline of 19; community transmission not ruled out. WHO-coordinated response active; documented state obstruction of WHO access is the crossing trigger from 0.3 points above Critical. Su…

Australia $1.43B PFAS Phase-2 MDL deadline. Adverse adjudication or settlement attributable to 3M directly crosses from 0.3 points above Critical into Critical.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window through July. 598 cases / 115 deaths with Kampala urban escalation; 17-health-zone spread; no approved Bundibugyo vaccine. Documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at the near-floor 2.3 co…

Ebola Kampala urban cluster (nine cases) peak window through July. WHO-coordinated response active; documented state obstruction of WHO access is the crossing trigger from 0.3 points above Critical.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window through July with 17-health-zone spread, Uganda cross-border confirmed, and no approved vaccine. Documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at the near-floor 2.3 composite.

Phase-2 MDL deadline. Merits adjudication or settlement of the Australia $1.43B PFAS claim or the Minnesota MPCA PFOS suit. A modeled downgrade of −2.3 would cross from 0.3 points above Critical into Critical.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window through July with confirmed Kampala cluster and 20% contact-tracing coverage. Documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at the near-floor 2.3 composite.

Phase-2 MDL deadline; merits adjudication or settlement of the Australia $1.43B PFAS claim or the Minnesota MPCA PFOS suit; ruling on military-contractor immunity defense. A modeled downgrade of −2.3 would cross from 0.3-points-above-Critical into Critical.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window (June–July) with confirmed Kampala transmission; documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at 2.3.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window (June–July); Kampala transmission confirmed; deliberate state obstruction of the response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at 2.3.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window; Kampala transmission (15 cases, 1 death) under observation; documented local-transmission surge with state neglect would break the overlay hold at 20.3.

Bundibugyo Ebola peak window (June–July); cross-border Uganda spread (9 confirmed cases) extends surveillance; deliberate state obstruction of response breaks NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at 2.3.

The EU AI Act becomes fully applicable. A second undisclosed telemetry episode or a regulator finding of deceptive practice would be the next event that could move the score.

The EU AI Act becomes fully applicable. No public compliance roadmap has been published yet.

The EU AI Act becomes fully applicable. Anthropic's compliance work is already documented.

EU AI Act full applicability — general-purpose AI transparency obligations activate. No public compliance roadmap from xAI.

EU AI Act full applicability — same obligations apply. 42-state attorney general proceedings ongoing.

EU AI Act full applicability — 27 days away. Anthropic compliance infrastructure is documented. White House 30-day vetting framework resolution is the next forward factor.

EU AI Act full applicability — 28 days away. Anthropic compliance infrastructure is documented. White House 30-day vetting framework resolution is the next forward factor.

EU AI Act full applicability — 29 days away. Anthropic's compliance infrastructure is documented. White House 30-day vetting framework resolution is the next forward factor.

EU AI Act full applicability — 30 days away. Anthropic's compliance infrastructure is documented. White House 30-day vetting framework resolution is the next forward factor.

EU AI Act full applicability — 31 days away. Anthropic's compliance infrastructure is documented. White House 30-day vetting framework resolution is the next SYS and Boundaries forward factor.

EU AI Act full applicability — same obligations apply. US-government-mandated restricted GPT-5.6 release (June 29) is US government conduct, not OpenAI own-conduct; logged for next rotation. 42-state attorney general proceedings ongoing.

EU AI Act full applicability — 32 days away. Anthropic's compliance infrastructure is documented. White House 30-day vetting framework resolution is the next SYS/BND forward factor. Model ban arc resolved net-neutral June 30.

EU AI Act full applicability — same obligations apply. No public compliance roadmap from OpenAI as of this cycle. US-government-mandated restricted GPT-5.6 release (June 29) is US government conduct, not OpenAI own-conduct; logged for next rotation.

EU AI Act full applicability — 33 days away. Anthropic's compliance infrastructure is documented. Fable 5 remains suspended; Mythos 5 partially unblocked for US organizations. Day 19 of the export-control order.

EU AI Act full applicability — 34 days away. Anthropic's compliance infrastructure is documented. Fable 5 remains suspended; Mythos 5 partially unblocked for US orgs. Day 18 of the export-control order.

EU AI Act full applicability — Anthropic's compliance infrastructure is documented. The applicability date tests whether it holds under enforcement conditions. Fable 5 remains suspended; Mythos 5 partially unblocked for US orgs.

EU AI Act full applicability — same obligations as above apply. No public compliance roadmap from OpenAI as of this cycle.

EU AI Act full applicability — GPAI transparency, Article 50 labeling, and whistleblower protections activate. No public compliance roadmap from xAI.

EU AI Act full applicability for GPAI model obligations, Article 50 transparency, and whistleblower protections (August 2, 40 days from June 23). OpenAI, xAI/Grok, and Figure AI each carry documented safety-governance gaps; no public compliance roadmaps published. Post-applica…

EU AI Act full applicability for high-risk and GPAI provisions (August 2, 41 days from June 22). OpenAI, xAI/Grok, and Figure AI each have documented safety-governance gaps mapping onto Article 9 risk-management requirements. Post-applicability non-compliance by an EU-facing d…

EU AI Act full applicability for high-risk and GPAI provisions (August 2, 42 days from June 21). Safety-governance gaps documented at Figure AI (31.3, applied), OpenAI (27.5, confirmed), and xAI/Grok (0.0, floor) each map onto Article 9 risk-management system requirements. Pos…

EU AI Act full applicability for high-risk and general-purpose AI provisions; AI-labs assessment cohort EU-compliance posture becomes a scored dimension across multiple entities.

EU AI Act GPAI documentation deadline — all assessed AI-labs entities remain non-compliant. An adverse regulatory finding against any lab on August 2 would be the sector's first Tier-1 EU regulatory scoring event

EU AI Act GPAI documentation deadline — next hard regulatory enforcement trigger across the AI-labs index; no assessed lab has published required documentation

EU AI Act GPAI compliance deadline — first hard transparency documentation requirement for large AI models. No assessed AI lab has published required documentation. Compliance posture at the deadline will generate scoring events across the AI-labs index.

EU AI Act GPAI transparency documentation deadline. No assessed AI lab has published required documentation. August 2 is the nearest hard enforcement trigger with potential for conduct-scoring impact across the AI Labs index.

EU AI Act GPAI transparency and systematic-risk documentation obligations take full effect. Fines up to 35 million euros or 7% of global annual turnover. No assessed AI lab has published compliance documentation — 52 days from this cycle. Anthropic IPO S-1 filing does not cons…

EU AI Act GPAI transparency and systematic-risk documentation obligations take full effect. Fines up to 35 million euros or 7% of global annual turnover. No assessed AI lab has published compliance documentation.

EU AI Act transparency and systematic-risk documentation obligations for GPAI models take full effect; compliance documentation due from all assessed AI labs.

EU AI Act transparency and systematic-risk obligations for GPAI models take full effect; compliance documentation due from all assessed AI labs.

EU AI Act full applicability deadline — EU Commission seeking access to cyber models; OpenAI compliance posture undocumented; decision to comply or refuse will be scored.

The Oakland youth-safety trial is the next event that could turn the $1.4 trillion penalty demand into an adjudicated finding.

August IPC lean-season update — IPC Phase 5 Borno trajectory and actual WFP food-assistance cuts are scored triggers from the June 19 band crossing to 18.0 of 100.

August IPC lean-season update — Phase 5 Borno trajectory and government response adequacy.

August 2026 IPC lean-season update — primary checkpoint for Borno State Phase 5 famine trajectory; 34.8M food-insecure entering peak lean window. Secondary: ISWAP insurgency pressure on humanitarian-access corridors.

August 2026 lean-season IPC update — primary checkpoint for Borno State Phase 5 famine trajectory and state response adequacy. Secondary: resolution of ISWAP insurgency pressure on humanitarian-access corridors.

August 2026 lean-season IPC update — confirmation of Phase 5 trajectory in Borno State; state response adequacy and humanitarian-access resolution are the primary checkpoints for the proposed band crossing (21.9 → 18.0, Developing → Critical, pending).

Sahel lean-season monitoring window closes — Phase 5 IPC famine designation for any Nigerian zone within the 14-day window would constitute scorable evidence not currently priced at 18.4

Sahel lean-season monitoring window — Phase 5 IPC famine designation for any Nigerian zone would constitute scorable evidence not currently priced at 21.9

Sahel lean-season window close. IPC Phase 5 famine designation for Mali or Niger would constitute a new scorable category not yet priced into confirmed scores, warranting a proposal above the current near-floor positions.

West and Central Africa lean season peak. Sudan (0.0) and Nigeria (21.9, 1.9 points above Critical) face the most concentrated food-insecurity footprints. IPC Phase 5 famine-area confirmation or documented state obstruction of aid flows in Nigeria converts to a scorable downgr…

West and Central Africa lean season peak. Sudan and South Sudan sustain floor designation. Nigeria (21.9) at 1.9 points above Critical; further IPC Phase 5 area expansion or documented state obstruction of aid converts to a scorable downgrade.

West and Central Africa lean season peak; Darfur famine areas confirmed; Sudan humanitarian plan approximately 20% funded; further IPC Phase 5 area expansion probable through August.

West and Central Africa lean season peaks; 2 NEW Darfur famine areas confirmed; Sudan humanitarian plan approximately 20% funded; further IPC Phase 5 area expansions probable through August.

EU Recovery and Resilience Facility milestone implementation deadline — EC enforcement mechanism active.

West and Central Africa lean season peaks; Sudan humanitarian plan approximately 20% funded; further IPC Phase 5 area expansions probable through August.

EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) milestone implementation deadline — EC enforcement mechanism.

RRF milestone implementation deadline — anti-corruption, EPPO membership, judicial independence, press freedom commitments must be enacted; EC enforcement mechanism activates if missed.

RRF milestone implementation deadline with EC enforcement mechanism — reform commitments in anti-corruption, EPPO membership, judicial independence, press freedom must be enacted.

The famine-risk window closes. A formal famine declaration combined with documented government aid obstruction would move the score.

Famine declaration window open through September 2026. Buur Hakaba and Baidoa at IPC AMN Phase 5. A formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration combined with documented government aid obstruction is a scored change trigger.

Extended famine declaration window — credible risk in Bay, Bakool, and Gedo regions through September 2026. Buur Hakaba and Baidoa both at IPC AMN Phase 5. Each new IPC Phase 5 designation in Somalia is a scored change trigger.

ICC trial proceedings against Rodrigo Duterte begin; 3 crimes-against-humanity counts confirmed; first live ICC trial applying to a sitting government's predecessor conduct — ACC/ACT dimension signal.

OBBBA Medicaid work requirements take effect — projected 10.9-11.8M coverage loss; realized-harm enrollment data would be the first Tier-1 US evidence event since the June 9 band crossing

OBBBA Medicaid work requirements take effect — CBO: 10.9-11.8M Americans projected to lose health insurance; realized-harm event requiring formal reassessment

OBBBA Medicaid community-engagement rule implementation — late 2026/January 2027. Coverage-loss materialization generates scorable evidence when verified enrollment data is published. CBO projects approximately 7.8M coverage losses.

OBBBA Medicaid work requirements take effect — CBO projects 10.9-11.8M Americans lose health insurance; structural harm event requiring formal reassessment.

The 2027 election under the July 2025 indefinite re-election amendment. Restoring due process and reinstating civil society are the conditions that would move the score back up.

2027 election under the July 2025 indefinite re-election constitutional amendment. Enforcement of the amendment in the 2027 election is the next structured forward trigger. El Salvador now at 15.0 of 100 Critical (applied July 5, 2026). Due-process restoration and civil-societ…

Adverse adjudication or settlement of the Australia $1.43B PFAS claim or the Minnesota MPCA PFOS suit, or rejection of 3M's military-contractor federal immunity defense. A disciplined modeled downgrade of −2.3 would cross from the 0.3-point-above-Critical baseline into Critical.

Verified executed governance reform on military-cloud human-rights review that produces observable outcomes — a documented decision blocking or exiting a harmful contract — constitutes a scorable upward signal from the exact 40/41 band boundary. New entity-specific adverse evi…

Verified delivery of the UK CMA publisher opt-out and attribution remedy (approximately nine months) plus replication in EU or another major jurisdiction constitutes the upgrade trigger from the 40.0/41 Developing-Functional boundary.

Next US Commerce or BIS action on the Fable 5 and Mythos 5 export-control order. The June 26 Congressional deadline elapsed with no public response from Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Suspension remains in effect.

DC Circuit ruling on Anthropic v. Hegseth (Pentagon supply-chain risk). Favorable ruling triggers Functional/Established crossing from 59.1; adverse ruling produces downward movement. IPO completion does not affect this trigger. Enacted Great American AI Act compliance documen…

DC Circuit ruling on Anthropic v. Hegseth. Favorable ruling triggers Functional/Established crossing from 59.1; adverse ruling produces downward movement. IPO completion does not affect this trigger. Enacted Great American AI Act compliance documentation would be independently…

DC Circuit ruling on Anthropic v. Hegseth — favorable ruling triggers Functional/Established crossing from 59.1; adverse ruling produces downward movement.

DC Circuit ruling on Anthropic v. Hegseth — favorable: +1.0 to +2.5 (Established crossing now possible from 59.1). Adverse: -1.0 to -2.0. Court expedited.

A labor board ruling on the unfair-labor-practice charge tied to Apple's closure of its first unionized store is the next event to watch.

NLRB adjudication of IAM unfair-labor-practice charge over Towson closure (transfer-rights disparity between unionized and non-union stores). Adverse ruling would establish the first direct-actor I3 finding in Apple's Fortune 500 record. Fourth consecutive cycle on I3 watch.

Whether the family-reunification suspension gains a top-tier source for scoring across additional dimensions is the next event to watch.

Documented wartime crackdown, mass detention of Shia-majority population, or discriminatory denial of emergency protection — EQU and Accountability (ACC) downgrade trigger from 9.4 of 100. Genuine verified release of political prisoners or restoration of civil and political ri…

Any appeal ruling in the Toplum TV case is the next event to watch.

The outcome of the replacement anti-disappearance bill, or a further enforced-disappearance finding, is the next event to watch.

SEZ union-rights extension and employer-resistance reduction — a second legislative tranche covering SEZ workers, combined with documented enforcement, would constitute the Developing/Functional boundary crossing trigger (proposed 39.8 is 2.2pt below 42.0)

A coordinator-level comparison of Baxter's proposed reading against the Fortune-500 medical-device placeholder cohort, or a second Baxter recall, is the next event that would test this finding.

Coordinator-level resolution of the math-hygiene gap between Becton Dickinson's published and reconstructed composites is the next event to watch.

A coordinator-level reconciliation of the composite-arithmetic mismatch, alongside similar drift flagged elsewhere in the registry the same night.

A comparison of Bolivia's score against Critical-band peers facing very different conditions. No timeline set.

Coordinator-level review of whether Bolivia's score is calibrated consistently against Critical-band peers facing very different conditions. No review date has been set.

Military-on-civilian casualties under the Jun 8 codified-impunity law — conversion trigger for a floor-designation proposal from 6.3. Army is deployed but no civilian-targeted casualties have been documented this cycle.

Military-on-civilian casualties under the June 15 state-of-exception law — conversion trigger for floor-designation proposal from 6.3. State of emergency declared June 20; army authorized but not yet deployed against protesters.

Military deployment against civilians under the enacted June 15 Law Regulating States of Exception — fresh ACC-dimension evidence for a floor-designation proposal from 6.3 toward the absolute Critical floor.

Bolivia confirmed at 6.3 (applied June 14). New military deployment incident producing casualties under the June 9 state-of-exception law would constitute fresh ACC-dimension evidence for further floor review

Presidential executive declaration formally invoking military deployment powers under the June 9 law — actual deployment against protest crowds is the floor-designation conversion trigger from 6.3

Military-on-civilian casualty escalation beyond the current Ombudsman-documented 10 deaths, or documentation of a second dominant harm category at scale, would be the floor-designation conversion trigger from proposed 6.3

State-of-emergency declaration or documented military deployment against protesters. The research delta is 4.1 points (0.9 below the 5-point threshold). Either event would likely cross the threshold and generate a new within-Critical deepening proposal.

Military deployment decision: actual deployment against protesters with verified civilian casualties or mass detentions triggers floor-designation review from proposed 12.8. Each day of continued civilian street control with no military action partially offsets the militarizat…

Judicial annulment or legislative repeal of the June 8 presumption-of-legality military-force law. Documented mass-casualty event under the signed law attributable to state forces constitutes a new harm category scorable beyond 18.4. The 10th consecutive week of deployment wit…

Confirmed extrajudicial-killing findings, mass-casualty escalation, or charge adjudication may warrant further movement within Developing. Negotiated settlement, charge withdrawal, or casualty cessation constitutes a reversal signal toward the 28.4 baseline. The June 9 report …

Documented mass-casualty crackdown, martial law with verified rights violations, or confirmed enforced disappearances convert the STATE-REPRESSION-IN-FLUX sub-threshold to a scored INT/ACC/BND downgrade from 28.4. Negotiated settlement with release of detained union officials …

Post-crisis reassessment per HUMANITARIAN-BLOCKADE-FIRST-BASELINE-PROTOCOL — fires on blockade resolution; further apply warranted if casualty count exceeds threshold.

The outcome of the Ulsan dispute and any published worker-consent framework for Atlas is the next event to watch.

The same comparison, from Burkina Faso's side of the calibration question.

The same coordinator-level review, from Burkina Faso's side of the calibration question.

New dated state-attributed mass-civilian-casualty event or escalation to sole-perpetrator dynamics constitutes a trigger toward the 0.0 floor from 6.3.

Any further retaliation or discrimination claim against Charter is the next event to watch.

First confirmed enforcement action under the Ethnic Unity Law's diaspora-liability clause -- a prosecution, forced return, or family detention abroad.

First confirmed enforcement action under the new Ethnic Unity Law's diaspora-liability clause -- a prosecution, forced return, or family detention abroad.

First documented Article 63 enforcement action under the Ethnic Unity and Progress Law — prosecution, forced rendition, or family detention of a diaspora member. Law entered force July 1; six days without enforcement as of July 6.

Adjudicated claim-denial finding or mental-health parity ruling from 0.3 points above Critical. AZ AG eight-insurer cartel suit adjudication is the sector-wide channel reaching Cigna alongside seven other Fortune 500 health insurers.

What settlement, if any, is reached on remand after the vacated biometric-privacy settlement is the next event to watch.

Summary judgment, injunction, or liability finding in the publisher coalition suit following the Nov 2025 MTD denial — leading AI-copyright cluster reassessment trigger.

OHCHR EMLER full report to UN HRC 63rd session — formal apply trigger for three-stream accumulation (systemic racism, HRD violence, office closures).

OHCHR EMLER full report to UN HRC 63rd session — primary formal-apply trigger for Colombia's -3.5 sub-threshold accumulation

A fourth nationwide blackout, or a documented healthcare-access failure beyond tens of thousands of canceled surgeries, is the next event that would move Cuba's score toward a formal change.

The health or release status of jailed opposition leader Tundu Lissu is the next event to watch.

Any prosecution of officers involved in the July 20 operation, or a documented internal review, is the next event to watch.

Any documented deliberate state obstruction of the Bundibugyo Ebola response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at 2.3.

Documented government obstruction of World Health Organization Ebola response corridors. The natural seasonal peak for this outbreak runs through July 31.

Any Ecuadorian or US government response to Human Rights Watch's inquiries, or a first prosecution arising from the documented incidents, is the next event to watch.

A documented change in Egypt's refugee-deportation practice, or a further Human Rights Watch or UNHCR finding, is the next event that would test this cycle's finding.

Independent confirmation of any dated Ethiopia-Eritrea border incident would count as interstate conduct, not against Eritrea's own record.

Whether any transferee is charged or released, and whether the arrangement enters a fifth phase, is the next event to watch.

A confirmed dated clash along the Tigray-Eritrea border is the next event that could move the score toward the floor.

The execution pace through the remainder of 2026 and any systemic review of capital cases is the next event to watch.

MSHA's final investigation finding on the July 6 Morenci fatality is the next event to watch.

A further escalation against the detained opposition leader, or a documented French response to the July 20 intervention request.

An index-maintenance correction of GEO Group's published composite, from 6.6 toward its own canonical 12.5, is the next event to watch.

Operationalized EU return-hub bilateral agreement with documented deportations bypassing individual protection assessment; executive defiance of a higher-court final ruling on the border-rejection policy; DATA-HYGIENE: stored composite 72.8 vs canonical 77.1 reconciliation req…

Further ECOWAS or CPLP action on detained political figures held by the transitional government is the next event to watch.

Documented Haitian-state security-force atrocities or deliberate relief obstruction is the downgrade trigger from 4.7 of 100. Verified state-led civilian protection and relief restoration is the upgrade trigger.

The outcome of the North Carolina Attorney General's lawsuit over Mission Health is the next event to watch.

Whether charges against the San Juan community members are dropped, and whether the 2023 Inter-American Court judgment is implemented, is the next event to watch.

DOJ False Claims Act ruling or settlement OR Barrows v. Humana merits ruling on the nH Predict AI denial class action. Either constitutes adjudicatory confirmation of the applied 35.2 Developing score.

DOJ False Claims Act ruling or settlement (Aetna/Elevance/Humana/broker complaint, filed May 2025); OR Barrows v. Humana merits ruling on nH Predict AI denial class action. Either event constitutes adjudicatory confirmation of the applied 35.2 Developing score. The score is li…

CMS enforcement action on Medicare Advantage prior-authorization compliance — a compliance order, corrective action plan, or fine would move the composite below the Functional/Developing boundary at 40.0 from the applied 40.6. Humana's 2026 prior-auth-reduction program impleme…

Whether the accepted protester demands, including compensation and no punitive action, are actually implemented is the next event to watch.

Supreme Court proceedings on Bengali deportation legality; a court order blocking or enabling the detect-delete-deport policy would constitute a SYS-dimension event.

Confirmation of 145+ state-attributable enforced disappearances among deportees at scale — a new harm category independently scorable beyond the priced 15.6 baseline. Judicial findings on wrongful citizen expulsion are a secondary directional indicator.

Confirmation of 145-plus state-attributable enforced disappearances at scale beyond the priced refoulement pattern. Judicial findings on wrongful citizen expulsion also constitute a potential trigger for further scored movement from the applied 15.6 baseline.

Nationwide STF deportation scale-up or new mass-casualty refoulement event extending beyond the current evidence window; Supreme Court contempt enforcement on Gujarat demolitions; halt or reversal of the Union Home Ministry deportation directive.

Supreme Court contempt enforcement on Gujarat demolitions; any halt or reversal of the Union Home Ministry STF deportation directive; any new documented mass-refoulement event extending beyond the current evidence window.

UN Special Rapporteur confirmation of Rohingya forced-return event — if confirmed, Critical-band-crossing apply at -3.0 to -5.0 from 22.7.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

Documentation of a second dominant harm category (mass detention of a distinct minority at scale, forced disappearances at scale) would break the single-dominant-extremity hold and trigger a reassessment toward the absolute floor.

Documented second dominant harm category at comparable scale to the political-execution rate — mass detention of a distinct minority group at scale, or documented forced disappearances at scale — would break the single-dominant-extremity hold at 2.5 and trigger a reassessment …

Verified halt of strikes on civilians, restoration of humanitarian access, withdrawal from occupied areas, and documented cooperation with accountability mechanisms are the scored positive-conduct conditions from the 0 of 100 floor.

The legal basis of the detention and any prosecution of the officers involved is the next event to watch.

Documented discriminatory denial of emergency protection to stateless bidoon or migrant workers during wartime — Equity (EQU) downgrade trigger from 25.0 of 100. Durable and independently verified expansion of bidoon rights or citizenship recognition — upgrade trigger.

A new ceasefire AND Lebanese Armed Forces assuming sovereign control of southern Lebanon AND reconstruction delivery are the scored positive-conduct triggers from 17.2 of 100.

A new ceasefire agreement AND Lebanese Armed Forces assuming sovereign control of southern Lebanon AND reconstruction delivery are the scored positive-conduct triggers from 17.2 of 100. The June 28 Washington framework is closed.

A new ceasefire agreement AND Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) assuming sovereign control of southern Lebanese territory AND reconstruction delivery together constitute scored positive own-conduct. The Rubio framework arc is closed as of June 28. A new diplomatic process is required.

A coordinator-level comparison of Mali's score against Burkina Faso's for comparable government conduct.

Coordinator-level review of Mali's score against Burkina Faso's for comparable military-government conduct. Roughly twenty-five days open with no set review date.

Coordinator-level Sahel-band calibration review — Mali (12.5 of 100) versus Burkina Faso (6.3 of 100). Thirteenth consecutive day without a timeline.

Coordinator-level Sahel-band calibration review; Mali (12.5) versus reweighted peer Burkina Faso (6.3) on comparable UN-documented state-perpetration conduct.

Any further coastal rescue and disembarkation operations, or a documented policy response, is the next event to watch.

FTC or state AG formal regulatory action on the MCI no-opt-out employee-surveillance program; independent audit establishing scope and harm; adverse labor-arbitration decision.

Whether the judge's 'serious questions' framing leads to a preliminary injunction is the next event to watch.

Next adjudicated bellwether verdict in MDL-3047; findings of intentional conduct or punitive-damages eligibility would trigger BND/INT dimension review.

Independent verification of the five new human-rights governance measures (Trusted Technology Review anonymous channel audit, pre-contract security-agency review application, conflict-zone tightening implementation) — implementation evidence is the upgrade-threshold trigger fr…

Verified Human Rights Review Board decision demonstrably blocking or exiting a harmful national-security contract — conversion trigger from positive-watch to scorable upgrade. Quiet reinstatement of terminated Unit 8200 access is a negative trigger.

Verified Human Rights Review Board execution that demonstrably blocks or exits a harmful national-security contract — conversion trigger from the current positive-watch to a scorable upgrade within Established. Quiet reinstatement of terminated Unit 8200 access is a negative t…

Whether the WARN Act compliance investigations become filed complaints, which would supply the stronger source the current record lacks, is the next event to watch.

Any further police action against the protest's organizer is the next event to watch.

Institutional corroboration (UN, OCHA, HRW, or Amnesty) of the claimed massacre of 17 captured soldiers would convert this from an unverified watch item into scoreable evidence.

Documented cessation of systematic civilian targeting across all four documented target categories (schools, hospitals, religious sites, residential infrastructure) and verified accountability mechanism activation. Floor exits through demonstrated perpetration cessation, not t…

Documented cessation of systematic civilian targeting of all four documented categories (schools, hospitals, residential infrastructure, religious sites) and verified accountability mechanism activation. Floor exits through demonstrated perpetration cessation, not through time.

Post-trial motions and any company response to the July 22, 2026 verdict are the next event to watch.

Any federal funding-compliance finding arising from the Aero Engine Corporation of China disclosure.

42-state attorney general proceedings and Florida criminal investigation — no fixed hearing dates; any concluded finding, settlement, or criminal charge constitutes a scored change trigger.

42-state AG investigation resolution OR Florida criminal investigation outcome OR Florida civil suit adjudication (minor self-harm, age verification). Any adjudicatory finding crosses the pre-adjudication threshold and triggers a scored change from 27.5.

42-state AG investigation resolution OR Florida civil suit adjudication (minor self-harm, age verification) OR Florida criminal investigation outcome. Any adjudicatory finding would cross the pre-adjudication threshold and trigger a scored change from 27.2.

Formal charges or published findings from the 42-state AG investigation (NY AG subpoena June 12) covering sycophancy, engagement design, vulnerable users, health data, and advertising — conversion trigger for a proposal exceeding the 5-point threshold at OpenAI's current 27.5.

Multi-state enforcement action, settlement, or court finding on sycophancy-as-design-flaw or age-verification allegations — converts sub-threshold ACC/AWR accumulation to a scored event.

42-state AG enforcement action, settlement, or court finding — sycophancy, age verification, or marketing-to-minors elements. Conversion trigger: ACC/AWR sub-threshold reading becomes scored event

AG enforcement action, settlement, or adjudicated finding on 42-state subpoena — any of these would convert pre-adjudication sub-threshold pressure into a scorable ACC/AWR event

Comprehensive full assessment overdue (51+ days); DoW classified-network agreement public terms; PBC conversion finalization; EU AI Act August 2 enforcement accumulating.

Comprehensive full assessment overdue (50+ days); DoW classified-network agreement public terms; PBC conversion finalization; EU AI Act August 2 enforcement accumulating.

Comprehensive full assessment overdue (45+ days); DoW classified-network agreement public; PBC conversion finalization terms pending; EU AI Act August 2 deadline accumulating.

Comprehensive full assessment overdue; DoW classified-network agreement public; PBC conversion finalization terms pending; EU AI Act August 2 deadline accumulating.

Comprehensive full assessment overdue (43+ days since April 18 baseline); DoW agreement public; PBC conversion finalization terms pending.

Comprehensive assessment overdue (42+ days since April 18 baseline); DoD agreement now public; recommended for immediate assessment.

INT dimension at Critical (17.5) at net-zero composite; governance bifurcation will resolve directionally. Tumbler Ridge failure-to-report arc unresolved at formal apply proximity.

Cumulative -3.6 sub-threshold accumulator at formal apply threshold proximity; Tumbler Ridge failure-to-report arc is primary directional anchor. One confirming event triggers formal apply at -3.0 to -5.0.

WARN-avoidance adjudication in Washington state class action or Missouri investigation — adverse ruling is the next Oracle scoring trigger following June 15 deadline confirmation

Washington state class-action ruling on the sign-or-forfeit severance structure. The June 12 change proposal (20.6 → 14.7, Developing → Critical) carries forward; adverse adjudication strengthens the coercive-consent foundation of the proposal.

Washington state class action adverse ruling on the remote-reclassification-as-WARN-avoidance theory — the remaining active civil adjudication channel after WA and MO state investigations closed without resolution on June 11. Adverse ruling or future regulatory settlement cons…

Independent, non-security-source verification of the Operation Shaban civilian toll is the next event that would move this score.

Independent, non-security-source verification of the Balochistan operation's civilian toll.

Independently verified deliberate civilian targeting in the June 28-29 cross-border strikes, or a new documented mass-repression event, is the downgrade trigger from 17.2 of 100. Ceasefire adherence with civilian protection and durable Afghan-deportation reversal are the upgra…

Independently documented Palestinian-authority deliberate targeting of, or systematic aid diversion from, its own civilians is the downgrade trigger from 25.0 of 100. Verified equitable civilian-protection or relief scale-up under Palestinian control is the upgrade trigger.

The prosecution of the six flag-burning arrests, and any resettlement of displaced Bush Wara residents, is the next event to watch.

The final 2026 year-end homicide count is the next event that would confirm this trend.

Restructuring scope watch: additional rounds or scope expansion beyond 7,000 announced while profits continue to grow. Each disclosure cycle over the two-year restructuring window is an independent monitoring trigger.

Russia at 0 of 100 — the absolute floor. Cessation of deliberate attacks on civilians, return of forcibly deported children, and cooperation with the EU Special Tribunal are the upgrade-trigger conditions. July civilian-casualty rate at 170 per day — the highest since 2023.

Russia at 0 of 100 — the absolute floor. Continuation of already-priced deliberate targeting of city centers and energy infrastructure. No lower score is possible. The July 1-2 Kyiv mass strike (27-plus killed) is the most recent scored event.

European Commission response to May 20 EP 418-207 conditionality resolution — if Article 5 formal investigation opens, distinct second apply at -3.0 to -5.0.

European Commission response to May 20 EP conditionality resolution — if Article 5 formal conditionality investigation opens, distinct second apply at -3.0 to -5.0 warranted

Extended famine window — credible risk in Bay, Bakool, and Gedo regions through September 2026. Each new IPC Phase 5 designation in Somalia is a scored change trigger.

IPC Phase 5 famine declaration for Burhakaba district — constitutes adjudicated-equivalent trigger for a scored change from 4.7. Three consecutive failed rainy seasons; 15% funded; UN 'real and credible famine risk' already confirmed.

A realized Ebola incursion from DRC Haut-Uele province combined with documented failure of South Sudan's own emergency response would constitute a scorable own-conduct event — the first cross-floor epidemiological trigger in the series.

A realized Ebola incursion from DRC's Haut-Uele province combined with documented failure of South Sudan's own emergency response would constitute a scorable own-conduct event — the first cross-floor epidemiological trigger in the series.

A realized Ebola incursion from DRC's Haut-Uele province into South Sudan, combined with documented failure of South Sudan's own emergency response, would constitute scorable own-conduct — the first cross-floor epidemiological trigger in the series.

Expansion of SSPDF aerial bombardment to Equatoria or Central Equatoria — would trigger mass displacement escalation beyond current ~471,000 IDP count and draw cross-border refugee flows. South Sudan at absolute 0.0 floor.

The outcome of the Oklahoma Attorney General's RICO lawsuit, or a final penalty determination from the California Department of Insurance, is the next event that would test this placement.

A ruling or settlement in the Texas-led antitrust suit against State Street, BlackRock, and Vanguard is the next event to watch.

Any formal international sanctions listing against the Rapid Support Forces would be logged against the group, not against Sudan's own score.

Any EU Council follow-through or sanctions listing against the Rapid Support Forces would be logged against the group, not against Sudan's own score.

The outcome of the UN Fact-Finding Mission's inquiry into the emerging El Obeid siege pattern is the next event to watch.

The outcome of the UN Fact-Finding Mission's urgent new inquiry into the emerging El Obeid siege pattern is the next event to watch.

An implemented ceasefire with unobstructed humanitarian access at El Obeid is the only path to a positive scored event from the absolute floor.

An implemented civilian-protecting ceasefire with unobstructed humanitarian access is the scored positive own-conduct trigger. El Obeid and El Fasher are the dual sentinel geographies. Al Jazeera July 6 frames El Obeid as the next El Fasher — UN red alert Day 3.

An implemented, civilian-protecting ceasefire with unobstructed aid access is scored positive own-conduct. RSF commencement of a direct ground assault on El Obeid residential zones — following the El-Fasher pattern — is the next floor-reinforcement event. Al-Burhan's June 29 r…

RSF commencement of direct assault on El Obeid residential zones — the El-Fasher pattern of drone strikes then direct assault (6,000 civilians in three days, May 2025) is the documented comparator. Day 16-plus of drone campaign. SAF counterattack June 28 opened one road — a fo…

UNSC formal demand to halt RSF assault on El Obeid (June 20); RSF massing around ~500,000 civilians; UN rights chief public statement. Sudan at absolute 0.0 floor; monitoring significance is the most precisely defined near-term mass-atrocity risk in the current portfolio and i…

Imminent RSF assault on al-Obeid (~500,000 at risk); 29-nation UNHRC warning issued June 18; RSF drone strike June 19 killed 13 civilians; ICC 'repeated town by town' characterization active. Sudan at absolute 0.0 floor; monitoring significance is for regional humanitarian com…

Imminent RSF assault on al-Obeid (500,000 at risk); UN HRC warning issued June 18; ICC 'repeated town by town' characterization active; absolute floor at 0.0. Monitoring significance: regional humanitarian compounding effect on Nigeria famine response and DRC Ebola attention.

IPC Phase 5 famine area expansion; verified ceasefire and humanitarian access restoration; ICC or ICJ accountability proceedings against RSF or SAF leadership. RSF terrorist designation creates a new enforcement axis: sanctions enforcement actions on the RSF financial network …

A coordinator-level calibration decision on how much of the 8.1-point movement to apply is the next event to watch.

The response to the July 25 rally and any further prosecutions is the next event to watch.

Release of detained rights defenders, or a ruling on the international clemency appeal for Rached Ghannouchi, would be the next event that could move the score back up.

The benchmark's editors act on the proposed 23.8 of 100 downgrade, now reaffirmed for a fifth cycle. Release of detained rights defenders or reinstatement of the shuttered information-access authority would be conditions for an upgrade instead.

Protest suppression watch — if state uses lethal force, mass arrests, or emergency declaration against protest arc, third-apply threshold crossed at -2.0 to -3.0 from 15.1

CHP counter-mobilization: opposition vowed new congress within 40 days; EU/Council of Europe formal response arc is the primary monitoring item; government tolerance or suppression of reconstitution would both qualify the current assessment trajectory

CHP opposition counter-mobilization: opposition vowed new party congress within 40 days; EU/Council of Europe response to the judicial action is the monitoring arc; further government escalation or tolerance of reconstitution would both qualify the current assessment

Whether Nation Media Group resumes operations and whether the seized critics are produced in court is the next event to watch.

A second dated incident of Ukrainian deep-strike civilian casualties, or an institutional finding characterizing the Kotovsk strike as unlawful, would convert tonight's confirmation into a proposal.

ICJ ruling in Sudan v. UAE (filed March 2025). The RSF terrorist designation this cycle adds a new accountability dimension: verified continued UAE arms or financial transfers to a designated terrorist organization post-designation would constitute a qualitatively different co…

ICJ ruling in Sudan v. UAE (filed March 2025 alleging UAE complicity in genocide). Verified cessation of RSF arms and mercenary transfers is the primary reversal signal for the applied 18.4 Critical composite. Documented direct UAE-force participation in Sudan would move towar…

Independent verification of Iranian casualty figures, continued infrastructure targeting, an institutional unlawfulness finding, or a further domestic detention-death event would each convert tonight's confirmation into a proposal.

A future priority-cluster assessment of the United States' own conduct toward Iran, including the resumed Hormuz blockade, is the next event that could move the United States' Critical-band composite.

Formal DOJ withdrawal of Olmstead enforcement — the Equity (EQU) conversion trigger. Or: documented state re-institutionalization of a person with disabilities with federal backing — the Accountability (ACC) conversion trigger. Neither has occurred as of June 28.

Formal DOJ withdrawal of Olmstead enforcement — the EQU conversion trigger. Or: documented state re-institutionalization of a person with disabilities with federal backing — the ACC conversion trigger. Neither has occurred as of June 27.

Appellate review of Murphy (D. Mass.) and Cobb (D.D.C.) deportation injunctions. Reinstatement of the rescinded June 4 ICE post-release death-reporting requirement is the first upward-direction indicator. Continued non-reinstatement deepens the transparency-deficit record each…

DOJ criminal Medicare Advantage fraud probe outcome (now interviewing former employees — a procedural escalation) OR Optum Rx investigation adjudication. Entity already near-floor at 10.2 Critical.

DOJ indictment or settlement admitting misconduct in Medicare Advantage billing, Optum Rx, or physician reimbursement. Any single adjudicated outcome moves UHG from the near-floor absorption state to a floor-designation proposal. Senate Grassley investigation findings already …

Merits adjudication or settlement of any of the converging sovereign enforcement actions — DOJ MA risk-score criminal probe, coordinated multi-AG investigations, AI claim-denial cases, or shareholder suit. AZ AG adjudication would simultaneously reach multiple other Fortune 50…

Merits adjudication or settlement of any of the four converging sovereign enforcement actions — DOJ MA-billing criminal probe, AZ AG eight-insurer cartel suit, Lifepoint federal complaint, or DOJ Antitrust MultiPlan grand-jury subpoena. AZ AG adjudication would simultaneously …

Merits adjudication or settlement of any of the three converging sovereign enforcement actions — DOJ MA-billing criminal probe, MA AG antitrust suit, AZ AG eight-insurer cartel suit — is the leading corporate scoring trigger of the current cycle.

Whether the Department of Justice pursues a resolution agreement or files suit is the next event to watch.

Independent confirmation of a discrete own-conduct failure, such as documented aid diversion or denial of responder access, is the next event that would move the score toward a formal change from 18.0 of 100.

Independent confirmation of the forensic pathologist's undercount allegation, or documented aid obstruction, is the next event that would move the score toward a formal change from 18.0 of 100.

14-day reassessment window from June 24 earthquake closes approximately July 8. Documented deliberate aid obstruction, diversion or theft of relief supplies, or suppression of casualty data — scored negative own-conduct, downgrade trigger from 18.0 of 100. Demonstrably effecti…

Documented deliberate aid obstruction, diversion or theft of relief supplies, or suppression of casualty data in the earthquake zone — scored negative own-conduct, downgrade trigger from 18.0 of 100. Conversely: demonstrably effective, transparent, and sustained relief and rec…

ICC warrant issuance or a renewed mass-detention wave reversing the release trajectory — new scored event. Sustained and verified prisoner-release trajectory covering the documented 884 political prisoners, with judicial reform — first improvement signal from the 18.0 Critical…

A further disclosed round of Verizon job cuts, on top of the 16,600 since October 2025, is the next event that could push this score toward a five-point change.

Independent verification of any renewed attempt at the collapsed prisoner exchange is the next event that would allow a scored assessment.

Independent verification of the July 10 prisoner exchange's completion and scale is the next event that would allow a scored assessment.

Durable reversal of Houthi-forced WFP staff terminations and release of all 73 detained UN workers would be scored positive own-conduct — the upgrade trigger from 0 of 100. Whether Doha talks produce a humanitarian corridor for Yemen is the observable forward question.

Whether OCHA or IOM can establish alternative food-delivery mechanisms in northern Yemen following WFP's forced termination of all 365 staff contracts. Without food-agency presence, delivery to 22.3 million people is severely constrained.

Verified release of all detained UN staff and confirmed humanitarian-corridor opening constitute the first scored improvement signals from the absolute floor; further Houthi detentions or famine expansion reinforce.