Scoring Outlook

EU high-risk-database obligation due June 14. Entity-specific Fortune 500 supply-chain audit findings naming purchasers with documented North Korean forced-labor exposure would be independently scorable on EMP and ACC dimensions for those firms. The DPRK sovereign floor is unc…

WARN Act layoff deadline — confirmed today with zero new evidence; WARN-avoidance litigation (Washington state class action, Missouri investigation) is the next active trigger

June 15 termination execution deadline closes; WA state class action on sign-or-forfeit and WARN-avoidance theory enters active adjudication phase. Adverse ruling on either theory strengthens the proposed Critical-band score.

WARN Act last-working-day sign-or-forfeit window closes for approximately 30,000 affected workers. Adverse adjudication on the remote-reclassification-as-WARN-avoidance theory in the Washington state class action or Missouri state investigation constitutes an immediate scoring…

WARN Act last-working-day window closes for approximately 30,000 affected workers. Adjudicated finding on the remote-reclassification-as-WARN-avoidance theory in NJ state proceedings or the Washington class action constitutes an immediate scoring trigger from the 0.6-point-abo…

WARN Act last-working-day window closes; any adjudicated finding on the remote-reclassification-as-WARN-avoidance theory in NJ state proceedings or the Washington class action constitutes a scoring trigger from a 0.6pt-above-Critical baseline.

WARN Act litigation adjudication — class actions in Washington and Missouri; if remote-worker reclassification confirmed as WARN-avoidance device, downward apply warranted plus ALGORITHM-BASED-WORKER-CLASSIFICATION methodology promotion.

UNSC UNAMA mandate renewal vote. Non-renewal reduces accountability architecture without altering the entity's own conduct trajectory. Reversal of Decree No.12 or Decree No.18 constitutes the first scored improvement signal from the absolute floor.

UNSC UNAMA mandate renewal vote; non-renewal reduces accountability architecture; reversal of Decree No.12 or Decree No.18 constitutes the first scored improvement signal from the absolute floor.

Constitutional amendment expected to complete approximately one month from the June 1 formal launch; Sulyok removal or Venice Commission adverse opinion are the two outcome branches from the 50.2 baseline.

Constitutional amendment expected to complete (approximately one month from June 1); Sulyok removal or Venice Commission adverse opinion are the two outcome branches from the 50.2 baseline.

Constitutional amendment expected to complete (~1 month from June 1); Sulyok removal or Venice Commission adverse opinion are the two outcome branches.

Constitutional amendment process expected to complete (~1 month from June 1); Sulyok removal or Venice Commission adverse opinion are the two outcome branches.

Ebola outbreak July peak window structural review — Bundibugyo strain in Ituri province; documented state obstruction is conversion trigger from natural-disaster-overlay to scored conduct event

July natural peak window for Bundibugyo Ebola strain in Ituri — 18 health zones affected, no approved vaccine, 676/136 as of June 12. Documented state obstruction of international response before this date converts the natural-disaster-overlay hold to a scored downward event.

DRC Ebola July peak window structural review deadline. Natural-disaster-overlay hold reassessment; any verified state obstruction of WHO/MSF Bundibugyo response before this date is an immediate conversion trigger for near-floor deepening.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window through July. 635 cases / 127 deaths with +37 single-day surge; 18 health zones; no approved Bundibugyo vaccine. Documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at the near-floor 2.3 composite. T…

Ebola Kampala and Wakiso urban spread peak window through July. Cases rising from June 6 baseline of 19; community transmission not ruled out. WHO-coordinated response active; documented state obstruction of WHO access is the crossing trigger from 0.3 points above Critical. Su…

Australia $1.43B PFAS Phase-2 MDL deadline. Adverse adjudication or settlement attributable to 3M directly crosses from 0.3 points above Critical into Critical.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window through July. 598 cases / 115 deaths with Kampala urban escalation; 17-health-zone spread; no approved Bundibugyo vaccine. Documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at the near-floor 2.3 co…

Ebola Kampala urban cluster (nine cases) peak window through July. WHO-coordinated response active; documented state obstruction of WHO access is the crossing trigger from 0.3 points above Critical.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window through July with 17-health-zone spread, Uganda cross-border confirmed, and no approved vaccine. Documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at the near-floor 2.3 composite.

Phase-2 MDL deadline. Merits adjudication or settlement of the Australia $1.43B PFAS claim or the Minnesota MPCA PFOS suit. A modeled downgrade of −2.3 would cross from 0.3 points above Critical into Critical.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window through July with confirmed Kampala cluster and 20% contact-tracing coverage. Documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at the near-floor 2.3 composite.

Phase-2 MDL deadline; merits adjudication or settlement of the Australia $1.43B PFAS claim or the Minnesota MPCA PFOS suit; ruling on military-contractor immunity defense. A modeled downgrade of −2.3 would cross from 0.3-points-above-Critical into Critical.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window (June–July) with confirmed Kampala transmission; documented deliberate state obstruction of the WHO response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at 2.3.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window (June–July); Kampala transmission confirmed; deliberate state obstruction of the response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at 2.3.

Ebola Bundibugyo peak window; Kampala transmission (15 cases, 1 death) under observation; documented local-transmission surge with state neglect would break the overlay hold at 20.3.

Bundibugyo Ebola peak window (June–July); cross-border Uganda spread (9 confirmed cases) extends surveillance; deliberate state obstruction of response breaks NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at 2.3.

EU AI Act GPAI documentation deadline — next hard regulatory enforcement trigger across AI-labs index; no assessed lab has published required documentation

EU AI Act GPAI compliance deadline — first hard transparency documentation requirement for large AI models. No assessed AI lab has published required documentation. Compliance posture at the deadline will generate scoring events across the AI-labs index.

EU AI Act GPAI transparency documentation deadline. No assessed AI lab has published required documentation. August 2 is the nearest hard enforcement trigger with potential for conduct-scoring impact across the AI Labs index.

EU AI Act GPAI transparency and systematic-risk documentation obligations take full effect. Fines up to 35 million euros or 7% of global annual turnover. No assessed AI lab has published compliance documentation — 52 days from this cycle. Anthropic IPO S-1 filing does not cons…

EU AI Act GPAI transparency and systematic-risk documentation obligations take full effect. Fines up to 35 million euros or 7% of global annual turnover. No assessed AI lab has published compliance documentation.

EU AI Act transparency and systematic-risk documentation obligations for GPAI models take full effect; compliance documentation due from all assessed AI labs.

EU AI Act transparency and systematic-risk obligations for GPAI models take full effect; compliance documentation due from all assessed AI labs.

EU AI Act full applicability deadline — EU Commission seeking access to cyber models; OpenAI compliance posture undocumented; decision to comply or refuse will be scored.

Sahel lean-season monitoring window — Phase 5 IPC famine designation for any Nigerian zone would constitute scorable evidence not currently priced at 21.9

Sahel lean-season window close. IPC Phase 5 famine designation for Mali or Niger would constitute a new scorable category not yet priced into confirmed scores, warranting a proposal above the current near-floor positions.

West and Central Africa lean season peak. Sudan (0.0) and Nigeria (21.9, 1.9 points above Critical) face the most concentrated food-insecurity footprints. IPC Phase 5 famine-area confirmation or documented state obstruction of aid flows in Nigeria converts to a scorable downgr…

West and Central Africa lean season peak. Sudan and South Sudan sustain floor designation. Nigeria (21.9) at 1.9 points above Critical; further IPC Phase 5 area expansion or documented state obstruction of aid converts to a scorable downgrade.

West and Central Africa lean season peak; Darfur famine areas confirmed; Sudan humanitarian plan approximately 20% funded; further IPC Phase 5 area expansion probable through August.

West and Central Africa lean season peaks; 2 NEW Darfur famine areas confirmed; Sudan humanitarian plan approximately 20% funded; further IPC Phase 5 area expansions probable through August.

EU Recovery and Resilience Facility milestone implementation deadline — EC enforcement mechanism active.

West and Central Africa lean season peaks; Sudan humanitarian plan approximately 20% funded; further IPC Phase 5 area expansions probable through August.

EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) milestone implementation deadline — EC enforcement mechanism.

RRF milestone implementation deadline — anti-corruption, EPPO membership, judicial independence, press freedom commitments must be enacted; EC enforcement mechanism activates if missed.

RRF milestone implementation deadline with EC enforcement mechanism — reform commitments in anti-corruption, EPPO membership, judicial independence, press freedom must be enacted.

OBBBA Medicaid work requirements take effect — CBO: 10.9-11.8M Americans projected to lose health insurance; realized-harm event requiring formal reassessment

OBBBA Medicaid community-engagement rule implementation — late 2026/January 2027. Coverage-loss materialization generates scorable evidence when verified enrollment data is published. CBO projects approximately 7.8M coverage losses.

OBBBA Medicaid work requirements take effect — CBO projects 10.9-11.8M Americans lose health insurance; structural harm event requiring formal reassessment.

Adverse adjudication or settlement of the Australia $1.43B PFAS claim or the Minnesota MPCA PFOS suit, or rejection of 3M's military-contractor federal immunity defense. A disciplined modeled downgrade of −2.3 would cross from the 0.3-point-above-Critical baseline into Critical.

Verified executed governance reform on military-cloud human-rights review that produces observable outcomes — a documented decision blocking or exiting a harmful contract — constitutes a scorable upward signal from the exact 40/41 band boundary. New entity-specific adverse evi…

Verified delivery of the UK CMA publisher opt-out and attribution remedy (approximately nine months) plus replication in EU or another major jurisdiction constitutes the upgrade trigger from the 40.0/41 Developing-Functional boundary.

DC Circuit ruling on Anthropic v. Hegseth (Pentagon supply-chain risk). Favorable ruling triggers Functional/Established crossing from 59.1; adverse ruling produces downward movement. IPO completion does not affect this trigger. Enacted Great American AI Act compliance documen…

DC Circuit ruling on Anthropic v. Hegseth. Favorable ruling triggers Functional/Established crossing from 59.1; adverse ruling produces downward movement. IPO completion does not affect this trigger. Enacted Great American AI Act compliance documentation would be independently…

DC Circuit ruling on Anthropic v. Hegseth — favorable ruling triggers Functional/Established crossing from 59.1; adverse ruling produces downward movement.

DC Circuit ruling on Anthropic v. Hegseth — favorable: +1.0 to +2.5 (Established crossing now possible from 59.1). Adverse: -1.0 to -2.0. Court expedited.

Military-on-civilian casualty escalation beyond the current Ombudsman-documented 10 deaths, or documentation of a second dominant harm category at scale, would be the floor-designation conversion trigger from proposed 6.3

State-of-emergency declaration or documented military deployment against protesters. The research delta is 4.1 points (0.9 below the 5-point threshold). Either event would likely cross the threshold and generate a new within-Critical deepening proposal.

Military deployment decision: actual deployment against protesters with verified civilian casualties or mass detentions triggers floor-designation review from proposed 12.8. Each day of continued civilian street control with no military action partially offsets the militarizat…

Judicial annulment or legislative repeal of the June 8 presumption-of-legality military-force law. Documented mass-casualty event under the signed law attributable to state forces constitutes a new harm category scorable beyond 18.4. The 10th consecutive week of deployment wit…

Confirmed extrajudicial-killing findings, mass-casualty escalation, or charge adjudication may warrant further movement within Developing. Negotiated settlement, charge withdrawal, or casualty cessation constitutes a reversal signal toward the 28.4 baseline. The June 9 report …

Documented mass-casualty crackdown, martial law with verified rights violations, or confirmed enforced disappearances convert the STATE-REPRESSION-IN-FLUX sub-threshold to a scored INT/ACC/BND downgrade from 28.4. Negotiated settlement with release of detained union officials …

Post-crisis reassessment per HUMANITARIAN-BLOCKADE-FIRST-BASELINE-PROTOCOL — fires on blockade resolution; further apply warranted if casualty count exceeds threshold.

New dated state-attributed mass-civilian-casualty event or escalation to sole-perpetrator dynamics constitutes a trigger toward the 0.0 floor from 6.3.

Adjudicated claim-denial finding or mental-health parity ruling from 0.3 points above Critical. AZ AG eight-insurer cartel suit adjudication is the sector-wide channel reaching Cigna alongside seven other Fortune 500 health insurers.

Summary judgment, injunction, or liability finding in the publisher coalition suit following the Nov 2025 MTD denial — leading AI-copyright cluster reassessment trigger.

OHCHR EMLER full report to UN HRC 63rd session — formal apply trigger for three-stream accumulation (systemic racism, HRD violence, office closures).

OHCHR EMLER full report to UN HRC 63rd session — primary formal-apply trigger for Colombia's -3.5 sub-threshold accumulation

Any documented deliberate state obstruction of the Bundibugyo Ebola response breaks the NATURAL-DISASTER-OVERLAY hold at 2.3.

Operationalized EU return-hub bilateral agreement with documented deportations bypassing individual protection assessment; executive defiance of a higher-court final ruling on the border-rejection policy; DATA-HYGIENE: stored composite 72.8 vs canonical 77.1 reconciliation req…

Confirmation of 145+ state-attributable enforced disappearances among deportees at scale — a new harm category independently scorable beyond the priced 15.6 baseline. Judicial findings on wrongful citizen expulsion are a secondary directional indicator.

Confirmation of 145-plus state-attributable enforced disappearances at scale beyond the priced refoulement pattern. Judicial findings on wrongful citizen expulsion also constitute a potential trigger for further scored movement from the applied 15.6 baseline.

Nationwide STF deportation scale-up or new mass-casualty refoulement event extending beyond the current evidence window; Supreme Court contempt enforcement on Gujarat demolitions; halt or reversal of the Union Home Ministry deportation directive.

Supreme Court contempt enforcement on Gujarat demolitions; any halt or reversal of the Union Home Ministry STF deportation directive; any new documented mass-refoulement event extending beyond the current evidence window.

UN Special Rapporteur confirmation of Rohingya forced-return event — if confirmed, Critical-band-crossing apply at -3.0 to -5.0 from 22.7.

Documentation of a second dominant harm category (mass detention of a distinct minority at scale, forced disappearances at scale) would break the single-dominant-extremity hold and trigger a reassessment toward the absolute floor.

Documented second dominant harm category at comparable scale to the political-execution rate — mass detention of a distinct minority group at scale, or documented forced disappearances at scale — would break the single-dominant-extremity hold at 2.5 and trigger a reassessment …

FTC or state AG formal regulatory action on the MCI no-opt-out employee-surveillance program; independent audit establishing scope and harm; adverse labor-arbitration decision.

Verified Human Rights Review Board decision demonstrably blocking or exiting a harmful national-security contract — conversion trigger from positive-watch to scorable upgrade. Quiet reinstatement of terminated Unit 8200 access is a negative trigger.

Verified Human Rights Review Board execution that demonstrably blocks or exits a harmful national-security contract — conversion trigger from the current positive-watch to a scorable upgrade within Established. Quiet reinstatement of terminated Unit 8200 access is a negative t…

Documented cessation of systematic civilian targeting across all four documented target categories (schools, hospitals, religious sites, residential infrastructure) and verified accountability mechanism activation. Floor exits through demonstrated perpetration cessation, not t…

Documented cessation of systematic civilian targeting of all four documented categories (schools, hospitals, residential infrastructure, religious sites) and verified accountability mechanism activation. Floor exits through demonstrated perpetration cessation, not through time.

Comprehensive full assessment overdue (51+ days); DoW classified-network agreement public terms; PBC conversion finalization; EU AI Act August 2 enforcement accumulating.

Comprehensive full assessment overdue (50+ days); DoW classified-network agreement public terms; PBC conversion finalization; EU AI Act August 2 enforcement accumulating.

Comprehensive full assessment overdue (45+ days); DoW classified-network agreement public; PBC conversion finalization terms pending; EU AI Act August 2 deadline accumulating.

Comprehensive full assessment overdue; DoW classified-network agreement public; PBC conversion finalization terms pending; EU AI Act August 2 deadline accumulating.

Comprehensive full assessment overdue (43+ days since April 18 baseline); DoW agreement public; PBC conversion finalization terms pending.

Comprehensive assessment overdue (42+ days since April 18 baseline); DoD agreement now public; recommended for immediate assessment.

INT dimension at Critical (17.5) at net-zero composite; governance bifurcation will resolve directionally. Tumbler Ridge failure-to-report arc unresolved at formal apply proximity.

Cumulative -3.6 sub-threshold accumulator at formal apply threshold proximity; Tumbler Ridge failure-to-report arc is primary directional anchor. One confirming event triggers formal apply at -3.0 to -5.0.

Washington state class-action ruling on the sign-or-forfeit severance structure. The June 12 change proposal (20.6 → 14.7, Developing → Critical) carries forward; adverse adjudication strengthens the coercive-consent foundation of the proposal.

Washington state class action adverse ruling on the remote-reclassification-as-WARN-avoidance theory — the remaining active civil adjudication channel after WA and MO state investigations closed without resolution on June 11. Adverse ruling or future regulatory settlement cons…

Restructuring scope watch: additional rounds or scope expansion beyond 7,000 announced while profits continue to grow. Each disclosure cycle over the two-year restructuring window is an independent monitoring trigger.

European Commission response to May 20 EP 418-207 conditionality resolution — if Article 5 formal investigation opens, distinct second apply at -3.0 to -5.0.

European Commission response to May 20 EP conditionality resolution — if Article 5 formal conditionality investigation opens, distinct second apply at -3.0 to -5.0 warranted

IPC Phase 5 famine area expansion; verified ceasefire and humanitarian access restoration; ICC or ICJ accountability proceedings against RSF or SAF leadership. RSF terrorist designation creates a new enforcement axis: sanctions enforcement actions on the RSF financial network …

Protest suppression watch — if state uses lethal force, mass arrests, or emergency declaration against protest arc, third-apply threshold crossed at -2.0 to -3.0 from 15.1

CHP counter-mobilization: opposition vowed new congress within 40 days; EU/Council of Europe formal response arc is the primary monitoring item; government tolerance or suppression of reconstitution would both qualify the current assessment trajectory

CHP opposition counter-mobilization: opposition vowed new party congress within 40 days; EU/Council of Europe response to the judicial action is the monitoring arc; further government escalation or tolerance of reconstitution would both qualify the current assessment

ICJ ruling in Sudan v. UAE (filed March 2025). The RSF terrorist designation this cycle adds a new accountability dimension: verified continued UAE arms or financial transfers to a designated terrorist organization post-designation would constitute a qualitatively different co…

ICJ ruling in Sudan v. UAE (filed March 2025 alleging UAE complicity in genocide). Verified cessation of RSF arms and mercenary transfers is the primary reversal signal for the applied 18.4 Critical composite. Documented direct UAE-force participation in Sudan would move towar…

Appellate review of Murphy (D. Mass.) and Cobb (D.D.C.) deportation injunctions. Reinstatement of the rescinded June 4 ICE post-release death-reporting requirement is the first upward-direction indicator. Continued non-reinstatement deepens the transparency-deficit record each…

Merits adjudication or settlement of any of the converging sovereign enforcement actions — DOJ MA risk-score criminal probe, coordinated multi-AG investigations, AI claim-denial cases, or shareholder suit. AZ AG adjudication would simultaneously reach multiple other Fortune 50…

Merits adjudication or settlement of any of the four converging sovereign enforcement actions — DOJ MA-billing criminal probe, AZ AG eight-insurer cartel suit, Lifepoint federal complaint, or DOJ Antitrust MultiPlan grand-jury subpoena. AZ AG adjudication would simultaneously …

Merits adjudication or settlement of any of the three converging sovereign enforcement actions — DOJ MA-billing criminal probe, MA AG antitrust suit, AZ AG eight-insurer cartel suit — is the leading corporate scoring trigger of the current cycle.

ICC warrant issuance or a renewed mass-detention wave reversing the release trajectory — new scored event. Sustained and verified prisoner-release trajectory covering the documented 884 political prisoners, with judicial reform — first improvement signal from the 18.0 Critical…

Verified release of all detained UN staff and confirmed humanitarian-corridor opening constitute the first scored improvement signals from the absolute floor; further Houthi detentions or famine expansion reinforce.