Venezuela's Earthquake Toll Hits 3,535 on Day 13 — a Response Called "the Last Responder" Stays Just Under the Threshold for a Score Change; Cuba's Third Blackout in Six Months Adds a New Watch

The UN's human rights chief, Volker Turk, sounded a "red alert" over Rapid Support Forces drone strikes on El Obeid: 15 strikes in three weeks have killed more than 45 civilians, including 10 straight days of strikes that killed more than 50 people and hit markets, schools, fuel stations, and water infrastructure. Al Jazeera asked directly on July 6: "Could this be Sudan's next El Fasher?" — a reference to the North Darfur city where Amnesty International documented Rapid Support Forces crimes against humanity, including mass killings and systematic rape, on July 1. About 500,000 civilians are trapped under the El Obeid siege. This harm is caused by the Rapid Support Forces, a non-state armed group, not the Sudanese government directly — but Sudan's floor score reflects the government's own prior failure to protect civilians and its refusal to accept a ceasefire. The Democratic Republic of the Congo holds at 2.3 of 100 — just above the floor. Its Ebola outbreak has reached 1,561 confirmed cases and 506 deaths, with the Ituri region hit hardest. There is no approved vaccine or treatment for this strain of Ebola (called Bundibugyo), and fighting in South Kivu is displacing people and blocking aid workers' access. Afghanistan holds at 0 of 100. Its floor score rests on the Taliban's formal gender-apartheid policies — laws restricting women's education, work, and movement — and is now compounded by the first-ever direct Taliban drone strike into Pakistani territory, launched July 1. Confirmed at 0 of 100 for Sudan and Afghanistan; 2.3 of 100 for DRC; confidence: high for all three.

State funeral ceremonies continue through July 9 across four cities, with 15 to 20 million mourners expected. More than 108 executions were carried out in June alone, part of a year-to-date total exceeding 784 — the highest rate Iran has recorded in 37 years. The leadership transition is a political event, not a change in how Iran treats its own people, so it does not move the score. Russia holds at 0 of 100 — the absolute floor. A missile-and-drone assault on Kyiv on July 5 and 6 killed 19 people in the city and 8 more in the surrounding region; a separate barrage killed 21 more civilians. United Nations monitors report Ukrainian civilian casualties now averaging about 170 people per day in July, roughly 20 percent higher than the same period in 2025. Separately, the European Union sanctioned six Russian individuals this month for developing the chemical weapon found in samples from opposition leader Alexei Navalny's body after his death, and renewed its broader Russia sanctions for another year. Ukraine holds at 50 of 100 in the Functional band: the harm inflicted on Ukrainian civilians is Russia's conduct, not Ukraine's, and Ukraine's own civilian-protection response — sheltering and evacuating people during the strikes — is scored on its own terms. Confirmed at 2.5 of 100 for Iran, 0 of 100 for Russia, and 50 of 100 for Ukraine; confidence: high for all three.

The UN's human rights office described the violence as "coordinated, strategic, largely unchallenged," with Israeli authorities "directing, participating in, or enabling it." On July 6, an Israeli strike on a vehicle in southern Lebanon killed four civilians, including a school principal, her mother, a domestic worker, and a Syrian citizen. Six countries — the UK, Australia, Canada, France, New Zealand, and Norway — have sanctioned networks that finance settler violence, and the International Criminal Court's arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant still stand; the United States retaliated in June by sanctioning two more ICC judges. Lebanon holds at 17.2 of 100: the July 6 strike is scored against Israel as the acting state, not against Lebanon, whose own conduct in the window was passive inaction amid ongoing ceasefire violations — already reflected in its score. China holds at 19.5 of 100, just half a point inside the Critical band. China's Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law took effect July 1, requiring Mandarin as the primary language in schools and government offices and mandating curricula that instill loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party. UN human rights experts warned in April the law carries "serious implications" for Tibetan, Uyghur, and Mongol cultural and religious autonomy, and Amnesty International said it will "entrench assimilation of minority groups." On July 1, Tibetan activist Lobsang Palden set himself on fire near United Nations Headquarters in New York in protest of the law and later died. Confirmed at 0 of 100 for Israel, 17.2 of 100 for Lebanon, and 19.5 of 100 for China; confidence: high for all three.

A standing question about whether Mali's score is properly calibrated against Burkina Faso's — a comparable military government scored at 6.3 of 100 for similarly documented state collapse — was first raised on June 24 and remains unresolved 14 days later. This briefing is flagging it explicitly: a gap this size, between two peer governments with comparable conduct, run for two weeks without a decision is a question for the benchmark's own methodology team, not something a single nightly check can resolve on its own. Nigeria holds at 18 of 100: roughly 35 million people face food insecurity, with the country's northeast the epicenter. A joint UN food-agency briefing on July 9 will update a regional figure showing up to 54.8 million people across West Africa and the Sahel at risk during the June-to-August hunger season, with food-aid funding cut more than 45 percent in Niger and Mali compared with last year. The United States joins tonight's list of scored countries at 17.5 of 100, still in the Critical band it entered on June 9. The picture is genuinely mixed: the Supreme Court upheld birthright citizenship on June 30, a check on the executive branch, while separately upholding limits on daily asylum applications and allowing termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian and Syrian nationals. A separate housing-policy change caps rental-assistance funding for formerly homeless people at 30 percent of levels used previously, down from about 87 percent — advocates warn this could disrupt housing assistance for more than 170,000 people. Confirmed at 12.5 of 100 for Mali, 18 of 100 for Nigeria, and 17.5 of 100 for the United States; confidence: high for all three.

• Venezuela (18.0 of 100): the death toll climbed from 235 on June 26 to 3,535 on July 7. A forensic pathologist told CNN, speaking anonymously out of fear of retaliation, that the real number is "not even a third of what is actually there." A regional aid expert said the government "has been the last responder," with citizens organizing their own rescues.
• Recalculating Venezuela's score for the documented response failure would move it to 15.3 — a 2.7-point decline. That is real evidence, but it falls just short of the 5-point threshold the benchmark requires before changing a published score.
• Cuba (32.8 of 100) enters tonight's watch list for the first time. A third nationwide blackout in six months, on July 6, forced cancellation of tens of thousands of scheduled surgeries and halted most public transportation. A data-tracking error that had understated Cuba's working score (27.8 instead of 32.8) was corrected this cycle.
• Recalculating for the blackout would move Cuba's score to 29.7 — a 3.1-point decline, also under the threshold. Both countries are documented as real, sub-threshold decline and are the leading candidates for a formal score change if the trend continues.

• Sudan (0 of 100): 15 documented drone strikes on El Obeid over three weeks have killed more than 45 civilians, with about 500,000 people trapped under siege. Al Jazeera has drawn a direct comparison to the El Fasher massacre that produced a crimes-against-humanity finding on July 1.
• The Democratic Republic of the Congo (2.3 of 100): its Ebola outbreak has reached 1,561 confirmed cases and 506 deaths, with no approved vaccine for this strain. Fighting in South Kivu is displacing people and restricting humanitarian access. The natural seasonal peak for the outbreak runs through July 31.
• Mali (12.5 of 100): JNIM fighters renewed a coordinated offensive on July 4 and continue blockading fuel and food into the capital, Bamako. A standing question about whether Mali's score is properly calibrated against Burkina Faso's (6.3 of 100) for comparable military-government conduct has now run 14 consecutive days without a coordinator decision.
• This briefing formally flags the Mali-Burkina Faso gap as an open methodology question requiring a coordinator-level decision with a set timeline — not routine nightly business.