Sudan 0 of 100: UN Red Alert Active Day 2 as RSF El Obeid Siege Tightens — 500,000 at Imminent Risk; El Fasher Crimes Against Humanity on Record; Floor Reinforced

Whether this reflects the succession contest or scheduling is not determinable from public information; the benchmark holds at the published score until a distinct harm event occurs. The Fallahi death sentence — issued July 1 — is Iran's own conduct. It adds one more data point to an already-priced 784-plus execution year-to-date count — the highest annual rate in 37 years. A single new sentence under a priced pattern does not open a new dock toward the floor under the double-count rule. US-Iran nuclear talks in Doha remain paused to at least July 11, a date created by the transition. Iran's score of 2.5 of 100 reflects prior own-conduct: 784-plus executions year-to-date, the Strait of Hormuz central channel mine deployment, and Gulf strikes already priced into the existing score. No new Iranian own-conduct harm beyond Fallahi was identified in the July 5 window. The protest-suppression watch flag is active through July 9. A documented lethal crackdown on mourners or demonstrators, or a mass arrest of political figures during the succession contest, would constitute a new scored harm event. Confirmed at 2.5 of 100; confidence: high.

The July 5 assessment identified the 140-plus defenders-fled figure as incremental detail on the same arc already captured in the July 2 proposal. This is not a materially new event changing the proposed number. The duplicate-control rule was applied: no second proposal emitted. The published score of 20.3 of 100 remains operative. Venezuela holds at 18.0 of 100. The official death toll from the June 24 earthquake surged 309 in 24 hours to 2,954 dead on Day 11. This is the fastest single-day toll increment in the response arc and raises the forward probability that a July 8 data-transparency assessment will find systematic undercount. Acceptance of external aid continues to block a downgrade in this window. The July 8 checkpoint — the standard 14-day mark for distinguishing capacity failure from deliberate obstruction — is three days out. China holds at 19.5 of 100. The Ethnic Unity and Progress Law's Article 63 diaspora liability has been in force for five days without a documented enforcement action — prosecution, forced rendition, or family detention of a diaspora member.

The July 1 killing of 3 Palestinians, 3,465 ceasefire violations since the truce, 1,053 people killed since the truce, and 36 percent of trucks blocked in the aid restriction are all Israel's conduct — scored against Israel under the benchmark's attribution rule. No new Palestinian-authority own-conduct harm was identified. Palestine's rotation-state composite had drifted to 20.0 — placing it incorrectly in the Critical band. Corrected to the published 25.0 of 100, rank 123, Developing band. A 5.0-point composite correction — the largest single-entity correction in the July series. Haiti holds at 4.7 of 100 in the Critical band. The US Supreme Court's TPS termination for approximately 350,000 Haitians is US conduct, scored against the US. Gang control of approximately 90 percent of Port-au-Prince — with 8,200-plus people killed year-to-date — is non-state conduct. 5.8 million people are food insecure and 1.5 million are displaced, continuing the priced state collapse. Haiti's rotation-state composite had drifted to 0.0 — placing it incorrectly at the absolute floor. Corrected to the published 4.7 of 100, rank 177. The Democratic Republic of the Congo holds at 2.3 of 100. The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak continues under a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) during its July natural seasonal peak. Total: 1,406 confirmed cases and 438 deaths. Multi-continent spread to Uganda, France, and Germany confirmed in the prior cycle. No approved Bundibugyo vaccine. The floor-crossing trigger — documented government obstruction of WHO response corridors — has not occurred. Fifteen false-positive screens were documented for the third consecutive cycle — the first three-cycle record streak. All seven false-positive category types are simultaneously active for the third straight night.

Ukraine holds at 50.0 of 100 in the Functional band. Ukraine's civilian-protection response — coordinated metro-sheltering and evacuation during the strike campaign — is consistent with the Functional band. Under the benchmark's attribution rule, harm inflicted by one state on another is scored against the source state. Russia's deliberate targeting is Russia's conduct. Ukraine's civilian-protection is Ukraine's conduct. Ukraine's forward trigger — documented state failure to protect its own civilians, or discriminatory relief — has not occurred. South Sudan holds at 0 of 100 — the absolute floor. 7.8 million people are food insecure; 73,300 are at IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe — a 160 percent increase since June; famine risk is confirmed in four counties. This is a floor-reinforcement event: catastrophic evidence cannot lower an existing 0 of 100 floor. No positive countervailing state conduct was identified. The cross-floor Ebola incursion risk from DRC's Haut-Uele province remains an open forward trigger for South Sudan. Confirmed at 0 of 100; confidence: high for all three.

• Sudan (0 of 100): Human Rights Watch's July 3 El Obeid imminent-atrocities warning — 500,000 people at siege risk in North Kordofan state capital plus 105,000 IDPs — is now two days on record. The RSF has not withdrawn from El Obeid. Al-Burhan has not accepted a ceasefire. Both evidence packages are RSF (non-state) conduct.
• Amnesty International's July 3 El Fasher crimes-against-humanity report stands from the prior cycle. Combined, these two packages represent the highest-severity evidence accumulation in Sudan's July series. The HRW 'imminent' framing means the window for civilian protection is narrow.
• The scored upgrade trigger — Al-Burhan implementing a civilian-protecting ceasefire with unobstructed humanitarian access — remains the only direction of travel. The tightening El Obeid siege makes near-term movement toward that trigger less likely. OCHA's siege-evolution documentation is the next evidence checkpoint.
• The structural observation: two consecutive cycles with Sudan in the highest-severity position — yet the score cannot move lower because RSF conduct is non-state. Only state conduct on the upgrade side (a ceasefire) can change the score. This is the methodologically correct and only outcome under the current framework.

• Iran (2.5 of 100): The July 4-9 Khamenei state funeral entered Day 2. Mojtaba Khamenei's absence from Day 2 proceedings is a new political fact. Khamenei's February 28 assassination was Israel's conduct, scored against Israel. The July 5 funeral proceedings are procedural — the score turns on new harm, not on succession status.
• The Fallahi death sentence (July 1) is Iran's own conduct. However, 784-plus executions year-to-date (a 37-year high) is already priced into the existing 2.5 of 100 score. A single new sentence under a priced pattern does not open a new dock toward the floor under the double-count rule (§3e-bis(4)).
• The protest-suppression watch flag remains active through July 9. A documented lethal crackdown on mourners or demonstrators, or mass arrest of political figures during the succession contest, would constitute a new scored harm event. The July 9 window close and the July 11 US-Iran talks resumption are the next two assessment markers.
• The methodology question from July 4 remains open: if the succession contest generates documented political repression — arrests of rival candidates or their supporters — does succession-driven repression constitute new scored conduct on Governance (SYS)? The July 9 close will determine whether this question needs a formal methodology note.