Iran 2.5 of 100: Khamenei Funeral Opens July 4 — First Supreme Leader Transition in 35 Years; Mojtaba as Leading Successor; US-Iran Talks Paused to July 11; Protest Watch Active

Russia's July 2026 campaign is tracking above the record pace set in the prior cycle. The EU Special Tribunal for crimes in Ukraine remains active; 20,500-plus children have been documented as forcibly deported. Ukraine holds at 50.0 of 100 in the Functional band. Ukraine's civilian-protection response — coordinated metro-sheltering and evacuation during the strike campaign — is consistent with the Functional band. Under the benchmark's attribution rule, harm inflicted by one state on another is scored against the source state, not the target. Russia's deliberate targeting is Russia's conduct. Ukraine's defense is Ukraine's conduct. Both scores reflect that separation. Russia cannot go lower than 0 of 100. Ukraine's forward trigger — documented state failure to protect its own civilians, or discriminatory relief — has not occurred. Three rotation-state rank drifts were corrected this cycle: China rank (154 to 148), Ukraine rank (48 to 53), and Russia rank (180 to 188) — all corrected to published index values.

The RSF offensive threatens 500,000 people in El Obeid and 105,000 additional internally displaced persons in surrounding zones. The 'imminent' framing from a Tier-3 source is analytically significant — it raises the forward probability of a fast-moving humanitarian catastrophe that could develop within the assessment window. Second: Amnesty International's July 2026 El Fasher crimes-against-humanity report — documenting RSF mass civilian killings, systematic rape, and forced displacement — stands from the July 3 cycle. Combined, these two packages represent the highest-severity evidence accumulation in Sudan's July series. The RSF is a non-state armed group. Under the benchmark's attribution rule, non-state actor harm is not scored against the state. Sudan at 0 of 100 reflects the Sudanese government's own prior conduct: the breakdown of state protection and al-Burhan's documented rejection of ceasefire proposals. The scored upgrade trigger — an implemented civilian-protecting ceasefire with unobstructed humanitarian access — has not occurred.

No new evidence was identified on July 4 that was not already captured in the July 2 proposal. The July 4 assessment encountered the same evidence basis (indefinite re-election constitutional amendment, Cristosal exile, 86 political prisoners, child life-sentences) and correctly applied the duplicate-control rule: no second proposal emitted. The published score of 20.3 of 100 remains operative. Pakistan enters the priority cluster for the first time. The June 28-29 cross-border strikes on TTP positions in Afghanistan generated a 36-civilian-death claim from Afghan Taliban sources — disputed by Pakistan. The harm was inflicted on Afghan territory. The disputed-attribution rule was applied: Pakistan is confirmed at 17.2 of 100. Pakistan's rotation-state composite had drifted to 15.3; corrected to 17.2 (published). Venezuela holds at 18.0 of 100 on Day 10 of the June 24 earthquake response. The official death toll stands at 2,645. A single-source pathologist undercount claim remains sub-threshold. The July 8 checkpoint — the 14-day standard mark for distinguishing capacity failure from deliberate obstruction — is four days out. China holds at 19.5 of 100. The Ethnic Unity and Progress Law's Article 63 diaspora liability has been in force for four days without a documented enforcement action.

No approved Bundibugyo vaccine. Contact tracing continues at approximately 45 percent. The floor-crossing trigger — documented deliberate government obstruction of WHO response corridors in Haut-Uele, Ituri, or North Kivu — has not occurred. DRC government conduct has not included documented WHO-corridor obstruction in any cycle. M23-related harm in eastern DRC is attributed to Rwanda-backed forces, not DRC government. Fifteen false-positive screens tie the series record set July 3. The July 4 cluster added Pakistan cross-border disputed attribution as a new simultaneous false-positive category. All seven false-positive category types are active simultaneously — matching the July 3 all-categories milestone. All 15 screens correctly disposed of under the established framework without requiring rule modifications. Four rotation-state integrity corrections were applied: China rank (154 to 148), Ukraine rank (48 to 53), Russia rank (180 to 188), and Pakistan composite (15.3 to 17.2) and rank (147 to 154). The Pakistan composite correction of 2.0 points is the largest single-entity composite correction in the July series. Confirmed at 2.3 of 100; confidence: high.

• Iran at 2.5 of 100 near-floor Critical. The July 4-9 Khamenei funeral is the Islamic Republic's first leadership transition since Khomeini's death in 1989. The funeral is procedural — a state ceremony, not a scored harm event. The score turns on new own-conduct, not on institutional succession.
• Mojtaba Khamenei is the leading succession candidate. The Assembly of Experts is expected to convene during the July 4-9 window to confirm a successor. Whether the succession process itself generates a scored Governance event — or whether only a new harm is scored — is the methodology clarity question open this week.
• US-Iran Doha nuclear talks are paused to July 11 — a specific deadline created by the transition. The paused talks are a diplomatic status, not a scored harm event. Iran's 784-plus executions year-to-date (37-year high), Strait of Hormuz mine deployment, and Gulf strikes remain fully priced into the existing 2.5 of 100 score.
• The protest-suppression watch flag is open for the full July 4-9 window. A documented lethal crackdown on mourners or demonstrators, or mass arrest of political figures, during the funeral period would constitute a new scored harm event under the near-floor framework. The July 9 window close and July 11 talks resumption are the next two assessment markers.

• Russia holds at 0 of 100 — the absolute floor — for the thirteenth consecutive cycle. The July 4 Kyiv strike continues a campaign that has killed over 30 civilians in the July 2-4 window. The 2026 civilian-casualty rate is running above the full-year 2025 rate per OHCHR documentation.
• Ukraine holds at 50.0 of 100 Functional. Ukraine's civilian-protection response — coordinated metro-sheltering and evacuation — is consistent with the Functional band. Under the benchmark's attribution rule, harm inflicted by one state on another is scored against the source state. The rule has been applied consistently for 13 consecutive cycles.
• The EU Special Tribunal for crimes in Ukraine is active. This adds a formal accountability mechanism. Russia's scoring is anchored to documented own-conduct, not tribunal outcomes. 20,500-plus Ukrainian children have been documented as forcibly deported.
• Three rotation-state rank drifts were corrected this cycle: China rank (154 to 148), Ukraine rank (48 to 53), and Russia rank (180 to 188) — all corrected to published index values. These are rank-only corrections from pre-existing drift, not proposal artifacts.