Russia 0 of 100: Record July Civilian Toll — 286 Killed, 1,388 Injured; EU Special Tribunal Active; Floor Reinforced

First: Amnesty International's July 2026 report documents RSF conduct at El Fasher that meets the standard for crimes against humanity — mass civilian killings, systematic rape, and forced displacement in North Darfur. Second: the RSF El Obeid offensive (El Obeid is the capital of North Kordofan state) threatens 563,000 people in El Obeid itself and an additional 105,000 internally displaced persons in surrounding zones. Sudan holds 28.9 million people in acute food insecurity. The RSF is a non-state armed group — not Sudan's government. Under the benchmark's attribution rule, non-state actor harm is not scored against the state. Sudan at 0 of 100 reflects the Sudanese government's own prior conduct: the breakdown of state protection, the collapse of health infrastructure, and al-Burhan's documented rejection of ceasefire proposals. The RSF's El Fasher atrocities reinforce the already-documented floor but cannot lower a score that is already at 0 of 100. The scored upgrade trigger — an implemented civilian-protecting ceasefire with unobstructed humanitarian access — has not occurred.

Three countries outside DRC have confirmed cases in the July 3 assessment window: Uganda (border with Haut-Uele province), France (June 24 imported case, confirmed EU first), and Germany (imported, second EU country). This is the first multi-continent spread of this outbreak. The July natural seasonal Ebola peak window is active. Contact tracing continues at approximately 45 percent. No approved vaccine exists for the Bundibugyo strain. The DRC score of 2.3 of 100 is anchored to DRC government response conduct — specifically: whether the government is actively facilitating WHO response access, maintaining health-worker safety, and sustaining containment infrastructure. The floor-crossing trigger is documented deliberate government obstruction of WHO response corridors in Haut-Uele, Ituri, or North Kivu. That trigger has not occurred. The international spread raises the geopolitical stakes but does not change the scored conduct basis. M23-related harm in eastern DRC is attributed to Rwanda-backed forces, not DRC government. Confirmed at 2.3 of 100; confidence: high.

The funeral itself is a state ceremony — procedural, not a harm event. The US-Iran nuclear talks, which had been underway in Doha, are paused as of the July 3 assessment window. A paused negotiation is not a scored event. Iran's score of 2.5 of 100 reflects its own prior conduct: 784-plus executions year-to-date (a 37-year high), the Strait of Hormuz central channel mine deployment, and ongoing Gulf strikes that are already priced into the existing score. No new Iranian own-conduct harm within the current assessment window was identified. The protest-suppression watch flag is open during the funeral window: a documented lethal crackdown on mourners or demonstrators, or mass arrest of political figures during the funeral period, would constitute a new scored harm event. Confirmed at 2.5 of 100; confidence: high.

The July 3 assessment encountered the same evidence basis (indefinite re-election constitutional amendment, Cristosal exile, 86 political prisoners, child life-sentences) and correctly applied the duplicate-control rule: no second proposal emitted. The published score of 20.3 of 100 remains operative. Venezuela holds at 18.0 of 100 on Day 9 of the June 24 earthquake response. The official death toll stands at 2,595. A single-source claim by a pathologist that the actual toll is approximately three times higher was evaluated as sub-threshold: one source, no independent corroboration, not a documented suppression pattern. The July 8 assessment checkpoint is five days out. Aid acceptance from international partners continues. The July 8 checkpoint is the standard 14-day mark for distinguishing response capacity failure from deliberate aid obstruction. China holds at 19.5 of 100. The Ethnic Unity and Progress Law, which entered force July 1, has not generated a documented Article 63 enforcement action (prosecution, forced rendition, or family detention of a diaspora member) in its first five days. The sub-threshold -1.5 composite dock stands as a forward trigger, not a realized score movement. This cycle screened 15 false positives — a new series record. Prior record: 14 (July 1). The record reflects simultaneous convergence of external-state harm, non-state harm, exogenous disaster, pre-adjudication matters, and duplicate-control cases in one cluster, all screened correctly under the established framework.

• Russia holds at 0 of 100 — the absolute floor — for the twelfth consecutive cycle. The July 1-3 strike campaign produced 286 civilian deaths and 1,388 injuries. The 2026 civilian-casualty rate is already running above the full-year 2025 rate, per the OHCHR July 1 report documenting 62,716 total casualties through that date.
• Ukraine holds at 50.0 of 100 Functional. The metro-sheltering of 52,500 residents during the July 1-3 strike window is the scored conduct event for Ukraine. Under the benchmark's attribution rule, harm inflicted by one state cannot generate a downgrade for the target state. The rule has been applied consistently across 12 cycles without exception.
• The EU Special Tribunal for crimes in Ukraine is now active. This adds a formal accountability mechanism — but the benchmarks scoring of Russia does not depend on international tribunal outcomes; it is anchored to documented own-conduct.
• 20,500-plus Ukrainian children have been documented as forcibly deported to Russia by OHCHR and UNICEF monitoring. This evidence has been in the scoring basis since prior cycles; it reinforces the floor without introducing new scored conduct.

• Sudan (0 of 100): the RSF El Obeid offensive threatens 563,000 people in North Kordofan. The Amnesty International July 2026 report documents RSF conduct at El Fasher — the last major North Darfur city not under RSF control — that meets the standard for crimes against humanity. Both items are RSF (non-state) conduct. Sudan's own government conduct collapse is already priced at the floor.
• Yemen (0 of 100): 73 UN staff detained by the Houthi de facto authority is one of the largest single-incident UN personnel detentions in the Yemen crisis. 18.3 million people are acutely food insecure. 450-plus health facilities have closed. The Houthi authority is a non-state de facto actor; this conduct is not scored against Yemen's recognized government. The floor reflects Yemen's state-level collapse and the government's own prior conduct.
• The structural point: two absolute-floor entities received two of the most severe evidence packages logged this cycle, and neither can move. This is the benchmark's design — extreme actors are anchored at 0 of 100 and the upgrade trigger (implemented ceasefire, aid access, accountability) is the only direction of travel. Monitoring continues for the upgrade trigger; no downgrade is possible.
• South Sudan (0 of 100) received a separate floor reinforcement this cycle: 7.8 million food insecure, 73,300 at Phase 5 — a 160% increase since June — and famine risk confirmed in four counties. Three floor-entities in a single cycle is the highest floor-reinforcement count in the July series.