DRC 2.3 of 100: Ebola Spread to a Fourth Province June 30 — 1,307 Cases, 377 Deaths; Haut-Uele Now Borders South Sudan at the Absolute Floor

Hezbollah rejected the framework. The benchmark scores each government on its own conduct. Israel launched the strikes; the 83 deaths are Israel's own negative conduct, scored against Israel. Lebanon is evaluated on what Lebanon's government does — or fails to do — for its own people and civilian protection. No new Lebanese government harm occurred June 30 that would drive a downgrade. No durable ceasefire or Lebanese Armed Forces sovereign control was established that would drive an upgrade. Lebanon is confirmed at 17.2 of 100; confidence: medium. Israel's floor at 0 of 100 is reinforced by the June 30 strikes. The UN Commission of Inquiry (report A/HRC/62/CRP.2, June 23) found that Israel continues to commit genocide by deliberately targeting Palestinian children — approximately 20,000 killed and 44,000 injured since October 2023. A total of 3,338-plus ceasefire violations have been logged through June 20. The Kerem Shalom crossing is congested and the Zikim crossing has been closed for two weeks. Israel is confirmed at 0 of 100; confidence: high. The forward trigger for Lebanon remains the same: a new ceasefire agreement combined with Lebanese Armed Forces assuming sovereign control of southern Lebanon and delivering reconstruction access.

Buur Hakaba (Burhakaba) district has reached IPC AMN Phase 5 — the Extremely Critical acute malnutrition threshold — with a Global Acute Malnutrition rate of 37.1 percent. Baidoa district also sits at IPC AMN Phase 5. Approximately 1.88 million children require acute malnutrition treatment in 2026. Roughly six million people — about one in three of the analyzed population — face Crisis or worse. The World Food Programme is reaching approximately one in ten people who need food. Drought from poor Gu rains, regional price shocks linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict, currency depreciation, and Al-Shabaab attacks are largely exogenous drivers. Only the federal government's own response capacity is scorable. That capacity remains within the existing near-floor band. No formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration was issued on or before June 30. The end-of-June threshold window passed without issuance. The famine-declaration risk window extends through September 2026. Somalia's inclusion tonight completes the full eight-entity floor and near-floor picture in a single assessment cycle — the first time this has happened in the series. Somalia is confirmed at 4.7 of 100; confidence: medium.

The New York Times reported a likely substantial undercount, which is an early allegation, not documented suppression. UNICEF's second supply shipment — 48 tonnes — arrived June 30; the first 20-tonne shipment had landed June 27. The United States doubled its humanitarian commitment to 300 million dollars (from 150 million dollars under OFAC General License 60 issued June 25). These are donor commitments, not Venezuelan government compassion conduct. The scored question is what Venezuela's own government does to protect and assist its people. Aid acceptance from international sources continues — that separates Venezuela from floor-cluster states. Domestic relief remains slow, disjointed, and opaque. Access restrictions from approximately 14,000 troops and police remain. Both screening rules continue to apply. The directionality rule blocks an upgrade: aid acceptance alone does not clear the upgrade bar when the entity surfaced on a negative event. The double-count rule blocks a downgrade: the published score of 18.0 already prices Venezuela's weak institutional capacity and accountability record. The July 8 checkpoint — the 14-day mark from the June 24 earthquake — is the next decisive assessment date. The scored downgrade trigger remains documented deliberate aid obstruction or diversion. Venezuela is confirmed at 18.0 of 100; confidence: medium.

The US State Department raised an imminent risk of mass atrocities warning. No new development beyond June 29 occurred to move Sudan's score. Israel holds at 0 of 100, reinforced by the June 30 Lebanon strikes. Yemen holds at 0 of 100. Houthi authorities forced the termination of all 365 World Food Programme northern-area staff contracts. Seventy-three UN workers remain detained; one has died in custody. Aid assets are seized. Twenty-two point three million people need humanitarian assistance. Only 12.7 percent of the 2.16-billion-dollar appeal is funded. Doha talks are a forward factor, not a current own-conduct score move for Yemen. South Sudan holds at 0 of 100, with the DRC Ebola spread to Haut-Uele now the highest-priority new cross-border forward risk. Iran holds at 2.5 of 100. The Strait of Hormuz central channel is mined and Iran is demanding transit fees, with hundreds of vessels stranded. The execution surge stands at 784-plus year-to-date — a 37-year high. Burkina Faso holds at 6.3 of 100, with the Sahel lean-season crisis and the Sahel calibration flag (day seven) continuing. The nine-consecutive-cycle zero-proposal record extends. The threshold events that would generate proposals — Somalia formal famine declaration, DRC Ebola floor-crossing, Sudan ceasefire implementation, Venezuela aid obstruction documentation — remain unresolved.

• Case progression from 1,155/304 on June 25 to 1,307/377 on June 30 — described as the fastest-growing Bundibugyo outbreak on record. The outbreak now spans four provinces, with approximately 15 million people in the affected zone.
• Haut-Uele borders South Sudan (0 of 100) and the Central African Republic. This is the first scenario in the June 2026 series where two floor-level countries share an active epidemiological frontier. Uganda has recorded 19 cases.
• DRC holds at 2.3 of 100. The floor-crossing trigger — documented deliberate government obstruction of WHO response corridors — has not occurred. Worsening transmission dynamics (45 percent contact tracing, no approved vaccine, community burial resistance) are largely exogenous to deliberate government conduct.
• The System Capacity (SYS) and Action (ACT) dimensions are the active watch dimensions. M23's eastern harm continues to be attributed to Rwanda, not DRC.

• The June 28 Washington framework is definitively closed as of June 30. Hezbollah's rejection on June 30 is the final confirmation. Israel resumed and escalated strikes, killing 83 and wounding 141 in a single day.
• Attribution holds: Israel's strikes are Israel's own negative conduct. Lebanon is assessed on its own government conduct only. No new Lebanese own-conduct either direction occurred June 30.
• Israel reinforced at 0 of 100 — the absolute floor. Lebanon confirmed at 17.2 of 100. The Boundaries (BND) and Action (ACT) dimensions are the active watch dimensions for Lebanon: Lebanese Armed Forces sovereign control versus Hezbollah, and civilian protection under continued strikes.
• Forward trigger for Lebanon upgrade: a new ceasefire agreement with Lebanese Armed Forces assuming sovereign control and reconstruction access. That process must begin again from zero after the June 28 framework collapse.