Waymo — Confirmed at 35.9 Developing. April 30 voluntary recall (3,791 vehicles, flooded-road software, OTA fix) and May 11 Koreatown rear-end crash (correctly attributed, no injuries) evaluated. Internal dimensional pressure +3.2 (transparency/governance). Sub-threshold; confirmed at 35.9. Dimensional credit carried forward per methodology v1.2. Band-crossing proposal from May 6 (Functional → Established) — new safety data is consistent with the proposal, not contradictory.
Eswatini — FIRST BASELINE. Composite 9.4 / Critical confirmed. Absolute monarchy; political parties banned since 1973; pro-democracy protests suppressed (2021, lethal force); high HIV prevalence (>25% adults) structural EMP drag; gender inequality; media restrictions. Score of 9.4 consistent with consolidated authoritarian governance and absence of reform trajectory.
Hungary — DAY-3 INAUGURATION WINDOW CLOSE — CONFIDENCE UPGRADED TO HIGH. Re-pin at 37.5 confirmed. 3-day window closed with no negative regression. 16 ministries constituted (Sulyok signed decrees May 12; sworn in May 13), including new standalone health, environmental protection, and education ministries. Sulyok has not resigned; May 31 deadline active. EU funds plan submission May 27 confirmed. Band: Developing → Developing (no band change; 28.1 and 37.5 both in band 21-40). June 9 is the 30-day re-assessment for Functional band crossing decision.
Floor conduct record
Cycle-specific conduct documentation for entities at composite zero, recorded for the May 11 briefing.
Russia — FLOOR CONDUCT DOCUMENTATION — CEASEFIRE WINDOW CLOSED — DAY-3 FINAL. No score change. Day-3 breach confirmed: Kharkiv and Kherson strikes, 2 killed, 7 wounded including a 14-year-old. 38 Russian attacks reported by 16:00 (Ukrainian General Staff). ISW FINDING: Russia used the ceasefire as a strategic stockpile window — Molniya drone systems pre-positioned; reserves moved forward in Lyman direction; drone-strike tempo rose during truce. NEW CONDUCT CATEGORY: 'strategic-format-exploitation' — first application in floor-conduct record. Cumulative 6-event breach record: 3 unilateral collapses (May 5-7) + 3 trilateral breaches (days 1-2-3). Prisoner exchange: Russia claimed Ukraine not ready; disputed by Kyiv; exchange not completed. Floor at 0.0 sustained.
Conduct documented
›Day-3 strikes: 2 civilians killed, 7 wounded (incl. 14-year-old) in Kharkiv and Kherson during declared ceasefire (EMP/IHL)
›38 confirmed attacks on Ukrainian positions May 11 per General Staff (IHL)
›Strategic-format-exploitation (ISW): Molniya drone systems pre-positioned; reserves moved forward Lyman direction during truce window (INT — novel bad-faith category)
›Drone-strike tempo rose during declared ceasefire per ISW assessment (IHL/INT)
›Prisoner exchange blame-shifting: Putin accused Ukraine of unreadiness; disputed by Kyiv; exchange not completed (ACT/INT)
›MoD continued 'strict observance' claims while strikes proceeded — bad-faith-INT pattern, day 3 of 3 (INT)
›Cumulative 6-event breach record complete: 3 unilateral collapses (May 5-7) + Kharkiv May 9 + Ukraine-wide May 10 + Kharkiv/Kherson May 11
Israel — FLOOR CONDUCT DOCUMENTATION — DAY-3 CLOSE. No score change. OHCHR torture/inhumane-treatment allegations (35 flotilla detainees, May 8 press release) remain unaddressed and unresolved at day-3 close. Gaza confirmed killed: 72,740+ (20,179 children) as of May 11. UNRWA access block since March 2025 ongoing. UNCLOS jurisdiction questions (April 29 interception, 500 nm from Israeli coast) unresolved. Deportation of final detained activists (May 10) resolved detention-duration only — not accountability. Floor at 0.0 sustained.
Conduct documented
›OHCHR torture/inhumane-treatment allegations — 35 flotilla detainees; May 8 documentation; unaddressed and unresolved at day-3 close (UNCAT)
›Gaza confirmed casualties: 72,740+ killed (20,179 children) as of May 11 — accumulation ongoing (EMP/IHL)
›UNRWA access block ongoing since March 2025 — systematic humanitarian-access restriction (EMP/humanitarian law)
›UNCLOS international-waters jurisdiction — April 29 interception 500 nm from Israeli coast; no accountability proceedings (BND/IHL)
›Flotilla arbitrary-detention phase CLOSED by deportation (May 10) — not by accountability proceedings; accountability gap documented
Entities where published composite and reconstructed composite diverge. Tracked openly as a publication-integrity obligation.
Critical flag
·9 cycles open
Open BionicsRobotics Labs
Math-hygiene cluster unchanged at 13 entities. All cycle counts incremented by 1. Waymo NOT added to cluster — score change is real (evidence-based reassessment), not a reconstruction issue. Scanner mislabel (Waymo described as 'Functional → Established' pending) documented; actual May 6 proposal is downgrade to Developing. Formula audit (robotics-labs + ai-labs) must move to in-progress immediately.
Pentagon AI dispute ongoing. White House reopened discussions (Axios April 29). May 15 Phase 1 safeguard inventory delivery is hold-expiry trigger. Safety red lines upheld (no autonomous weapons, no mass surveillance) — positive signal pre-staged. Pentagon exclusion from May 1 cohort is negative structural signal. Hold expires May 15.
Last assessed May 4. No new material evidence in May 11 window. Standard rotation interval applies.
Forward signals
Calendar of upcoming scoring events the methodology pipeline is tracking.
·2 signals
Pipeline
STANDARD ROTATION RESUMES — 4-day sequential backfill complete; pipeline returns to current-date cadence with May 12 cycle.
rotation-state.json
MAINTENANCE PASS REQUIRED — Pacific cluster (Timor-Leste, Kiribati, Marshall Islands) and 5 countries (Croatia, Sao Tome, Nepal, Cook Islands, Cyprus) flagged for first-baseline assessment despite all 8 being assessed May 9-10. Last-assessed dates and rotation pointers must be corrected before May 12 scan to prevent re-queuing already-assessed entities.
Phase 1 safeguard inventory delivery to Pentagon — hold expires. White House re-engagement pre-staged (Axios April 29; Trump said deal 'possible' April 21). Pentagon blacklist maintained through May 1. Anthropic excluded from May 1 Pentagon 7-company AI cohort. Safety red lines (no autonomous weapons, no mass surveillance) upheld — positive ACC/INT signal. Complex scoring picture requires full assessment.
30-day post-formation re-assessment. Sulyok May 31 compliance outcome, cabinet consolidation progress, EU funds plan (May 27 submission) are the determining inputs for Functional band crossing decision (40.0+). If Sulyok complies with Magyar's deadline, ACC credit strengthens. If Sulyok defies (Fidesz signals support for defiance), ACC credit awarded on inauguration day comes under pressure.
Floor designations
·8 entities at composite 0 with documented evidence pattern
Composite scores resolving at zero — methodology disclosure
These entities have all 8 dimensions resolving at the lowest behavioral anchor (1.0/5.0) across multiple assessment cycles. Read the methodology.
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