Pakistan

A new rule requires state permission to report outside three cities; the finding rests on one source.

A second independent source corroborating the new foreign-media accreditation rules is the next event to watch.

More than half of Pakistan's monsoon deaths came from houses collapsing, a building problem, not just weather.

Independent, non-security-source verification of the Balochistan operation's civilian toll is the next event that would move this score.

Independent, non-security-source verification of the Balochistan operation's civilian toll is the next event that would move this score.

Operation Shaban confirmed Pakistan's existing pattern of disappearances at higher intensity.

Independent, non-security-source verification of the Balochistan operation's civilian toll is the next event that would move this score.

Independent, non-security-source verification of the Balochistan operation's civilian toll is the next event that would move this score.

Independent, non-security-source verification of the Balochistan operation's civilian toll is the next event that would move this score.

A Balochistan operation's death toll reached 91, still reported only by security sources.

Independent, non-security-source verification of the Balochistan operation's civilian toll is the next event that would move this score.

A Balochistan operation's toll keeps climbing, still reported only by security sources into a fifth week.

Independent, non-security-source verification of the Balochistan operation's civilian toll is the next event that would move this score.

A Balochistan operation's toll keeps climbing, still reported only by security sources into a fourth week.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

A Balochistan security operation's toll reaches about 129 since July 5, still reported only by security sources.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

Operation Shaaban's toll rises to about 129 since July 5, entirely security-source-reported militant casualties.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

Operation Shaaban's toll rises to about 125, atop an already-priced Balochistan pattern.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

A Balochistan security operation reports a combined 125 militants killed since July 5, atop an already-priced pattern.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

A Balochistan security operation reports 117 militants killed since July 5, atop an already-priced pattern.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

A Balochistan security operation reports 102 militants killed since July 5, atop an already-priced pattern.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

A Balochistan security operation reports 88 militants killed since July 5.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

Balochistan security operations escalate, with about 75 people killed since July 7.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

More bodies are recovered in Balochistan showing signs of torture, reinforcing an existing pattern.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

Six more people reportedly disappear in Balochistan, reinforcing the existing enforced-disappearance pattern.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

Mass preventive detention of protesters, a 27-channel media ban, and continued Afghan-refugee deportation reinforce the Critical band.

Independently verified deliberate targeting of civilians in a cross-border strike would move Pakistan's score down; durable relief for detained protesters and …

Independently verified deliberate civilian targeting or a disproportionate mass-casualty cross-border strike is the downgrade trigger. Durable equitable relief…

Independently verified deliberate civilian targeting or a disproportionate mass-casualty cross-border strike is the downgrade trigger. Durable equitable relief…

First priority-cluster appearance; June 28-29 cross-border TTP strikes on Afghan territory; 36-civilian toll is single-source Taliban claim disputed by Pakista…

Independently verified deliberate civilian targeting or a disproportionate mass-casualty cross-border strike is the downgrade trigger. Durable equitable relief…

Documented deliberate obstruction of monsoon-flood relief is the downgrade trigger; equitable relief scale-up with durable Afghan-deportation reversal is the u…

First full baseline at 17.2 Critical — monsoon floods (6.9M affected) are exogenous; Afghan deportations and speech law already priced in May 2025 downgrade; s…

Documented deliberate obstruction of monsoon-flood relief is the downgrade trigger; equitable relief scale-up with durable Afghan-deportation reversal is the u…

HRW June 12 Islamabad forced-eviction (no compensation, defying Supreme Court stay) reinforces Critical-band position.

HRW June 12 forced-eviction report (Islamabad informal settlements, no compensation, defying Supreme Court stay) reinforces Critical position. Cycle 6 hold.

Army Chief Tampa speech invokes nuclear use; first NUCLEAR-THREAT-RHETORIC methodology flag applied.

RSF: four Pakistani journalists in exile sentenced to life imprisonment in absentia — transnational repression extending beyond borders. OHCHR April 2026 deman…

RSF May 2026: four Pakistani journalists in exile sentenced to life imprisonment in absentia for 'inciting violence' — transnational repression reaching beyond…

Critical-band position confirmed. No new May 24-window evidence. Carry-forward: USCIRF refugee expulsion concerns, HRW Afghan deportation surge (146,000+), Ahm…

Critical-band position confirmed for a second consecutive cycle. USCIRF documented concerns on refugee expulsions and Ahmadiyya attacks; HRW reports 146,000+ A…

Published Critical-band position confirmed. Ahmadiyya minority targeted under blasphemy laws (documented deaths April–May 2026), 531,000+ Afghan coerced depart…

Pakistan's published score already sits in the Critical band. The 146,000+ Afghan refugee forcible returns, online speech amendments, and UN HCHR warning are l…