Ukraine

May 11-12 (in-window): Russia fired 200+ drones at Ukraine as truce expired (Al Jazeera). Ukraine was the recipient of the post-format surge, not the initiator.

May 11-12 (in-window): Russia fired 200+ drones at Ukraine as truce expired (Al Jazeera). Ukraine was the recipient of the post-format surge, not the initiator.

May 11-12 (in-window): Russia fired 200+ drones at Ukraine as truce expired (Al Jazeera). Ukraine was the recipient of the post-format surge, not the initiator.

May 11-12 (in-window): Russia fired 200+ drones at Ukraine as truce expired (Al Jazeera). Ukraine was the recipient of the post-format surge, not the initiator.

Ceasefire arc (May 9-11, prisoner exchange 1,000 per side) generates +1.0 sub-threshold positive under defending-party context convention. Geneva peace talks s…

Day-7 asymmetric conduct arc sustained; Xi-Putin diplomatic pressure window does not alter Ukraine's clean conduct record.

Day-6 asymmetric arc confirmed; conduct distinction sustained through Xi-Putin summit pressure window.

Ukraine

Ukraine

Ukraine

Ukraine

Ukraine