Nigeria

The man-made northern famine record remains operative, continuing the already-priced June 19 downgrade.

A formal famine declaration in Borno state combined with documented aid obstruction is the next scored event to watch.

A new food-security report projects the worst hunger crisis in a decade.

A formal famine declaration in Borno state combined with documented aid obstruction is the next scored event to watch.

Northern hunger remains the worst in nearly a decade, continuing an already-priced crisis.

A formal famine declaration in Borno state combined with documented aid obstruction is the next scored event to watch.

The World Food Programme calls northern hunger the worst in nearly a decade.

A formal famine declaration in Borno state combined with documented aid obstruction is the next scored event to watch.

Food insecurity deepens about 2 million people faster than projected, continuing the June 19 hunger-crisis downgrade.

A formal famine declaration in Borno state combined with documented aid obstruction is the next scored event to watch.

Roughly 35 million people face food insecurity, continuing the already-priced June 19 hunger crisis; no new discrete event this cycle.

A formal famine declaration in Borno state combined with documented aid obstruction, or realized food-assistance cuts from the July 9 regional briefing, are th…

Record 35-million-plus food insecure continues the June 19 already-priced band-crossing; JNIM and ISWAP attacks are non-state; August IPC lean-season update is…

Realized WFP food-assistance cuts plus a formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration in Borno with documented aid obstruction — August IPC lean-season update is the …

Record 35-million-plus food insecure continues the June 19 already-priced band-crossing; JNIM/ISWAP attacks are non-state; August IPC lean-season update is the…

Realized WFP food-assistance cuts plus a formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration in Borno with documented aid obstruction — August IPC lean-season update is the …

Record 36.2 million food insecure and 5.5 million without aid continue the June 19 already-priced band-crossing; JNIM/ISWAP attacks are non-state; August IPC l…

Realized WFP food-assistance cuts plus a formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration in Borno with documented aid obstruction — August IPC lean-season update is the …

Record 36.2 million food insecure and 15,000 at Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno continue the June 19 already-priced band-crossing; JNIM attacks are non-state; WFP…

Realized WFP food-assistance cuts plus a formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration in Borno with documented aid obstruction — August IPC lean-season update is the …

IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno priced in the June 19 band crossing; WFP imminent-cuts warning is a forward trigger, not a realized threshold; JNIM attacks ar…

Realized WFP food-assistance cuts plus a formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration in Borno with documented aid obstruction — August IPC lean-season update is the …

IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno priced in the June 19 band crossing; WFP imminent-cuts warning is a forward trigger, not a realized threshold.

Realized WFP food-assistance cuts plus a formal IPC Phase 5 famine declaration in Borno with documented aid obstruction — August IPC lean-season update is the …

IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno already priced in the June 19 band crossing to 18.0; WFP imminent-cuts warning is a forward trigger, not a realized threshold.

IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno already priced in the June 19 band crossing to 18.0; double-count screened; WFP imminent-cuts warning is a forward trigger, no…

IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno already priced in the June 19 band crossing to 18.0; double-count screened; WFP imminent-cuts warning is a forward trigger, no…

IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno already priced in the June 19 band crossing to 18.0; double-count screened; WFP imminent-cuts warning is a forward trigger, no…

IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno already priced in the June 19 band crossing to 18.0; double-count screened this cycle.

IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno confirmed again; evidence already counted June 19 — no double-count this cycle; lean-season peak continues through August.

IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno confirmed; lean-season peak continues; evidence already counted June 19 — no double-count.

34.8M at IPC Phase 3+; 15,000 in Borno at IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe; lean-season peak continues; no new own-conduct event since Jun 19 band crossing.

~15,000 at IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno; 52.8M acutely food-insecure in 2026 lean season — worst in a decade.

34.7M food-insecure in Borno Phase 5; ISWAP insurgency and aid cuts externally driven; near-floor Critical confirmed.

Developing-to-Critical crossing applied June 19; same FAO-WFP evidence re-surfaced; no new downside.

Applied 2026-06-19 (21.9 → 18.0, Δ -3.9, Developing → Critical); FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots Jun 17 evidence re-surfaced on Jun 20 scan — no new scorable downside;…

FAO-WFP: ~15,000 at IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe in Borno State; IRC: famine 'entirely man-made.'

FAO-WFP/IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe for ~15,000 in Borno State; 34.8M at Phase 3+; IRC: 'entirely man-made'; sub-threshold delta (-3.9) crosses Developing-to-Criti…

34.7M at acute food insecurity; 15,000 IPC Phase 5 in Borno; WFP $129M funding gap; July 31 operational horizon. Not assessed tonight; carry-forward from prior…

34.7M at acute food insecurity; 15,000 IPC Phase 5 in Borno; WFP $129M funding gap. Not assessed tonight; carry-forward from June 16.

34.7M at acute food insecurity; 15,000 IPC Phase 5 in Borno; freshness ruling applied (Jan 2026 WFP data).

34.7M at acute food insecurity (lean-season peak, 15,000 IPC Phase 5 in Borno). WFP $129M funding gap through July is the conversion trigger.

34.7M acute food insecure for lean season; WFP Jan 2026 source outside window; freshness ruling applied.

34.7M Nigerians at acute food insecurity for June-August 2026 lean season; 15,000 at IPC Phase 5 in Borno. Score confirmed at 18.4 per freshness ruling; Januar…

34.7M projected food-insecure June-August 2026; government acknowledges crisis; score confirmed via freshness ruling.

34.7M projected food-insecure June-August 2026, with 15,000+ at famine risk in Borno. Phase 5 IPC designation for any individual Nigerian zone would constitute…

FAO Sahel projection excluded by freshness rule (published Jan 27, 2026 — outside 14-day window).

NE Nigeria in regional Sahel appeal; evidence region-wide and not Nigeria-disaggregated — insufficient for a scored proposal.

Documented deliberate state obstruction of humanitarian access, a state-attributable mass-casualty event, or IPC Phase 5 famine-area confirmation converts the …

Documented deliberate state obstruction of humanitarian access, a state-attributable mass-casualty event, or IPC Phase 5 famine-area confirmation converts the …

Documented deliberate state obstruction of humanitarian access, a state-attributable mass-casualty event, or IPC Phase 5 famine-area confirmation converts the …

Documented deliberate state obstruction of humanitarian access, a state-attributable mass-casualty event, or confirmation of famine areas convert the PRICED-CO…

Documented deliberate state obstruction of humanitarian access, a state-attributable mass-casualty event, or confirmation of famine areas in Nigeria convert th…

Approximately 34.7M lean-season food-insecure; non-state armed group drivers (Boko Haram/ISWAP) priced as continuation at 21.9 boundary.

Documented deliberate state obstruction of humanitarian access, a state-attributable mass-casualty event, or confirmation of famine areas in Nigeria convert th…

Lean-season escalation (52.8M food insecure; Borno 15,000 at Catastrophe level for first time in a decade) classified as seasonal shock with no documented stat…