Iran

Iran's score already sits so close to the floor that no evidence could clear the threshold for a proposal.

Iran publicly executed two more men nine days after two others from the same mass trial.

Any further public execution from the same mass trial is the next event to watch.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

About 1,500 death-row prisoners began a hunger strike, some sewing their lips shut.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

Iran executed five political prisoners in a week, confirming its near-floor score.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

Iranian strikes hit civilian infrastructure in Kuwait and Jordan, confirming its near-floor score.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

A US strike campaign killed 50-plus people in Iran; being struck is not evidence of Iran's own conduct.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

Harm from the US strike campaign counts against the United States, not against Iran's own record.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

The United States strikes six bridges near Bandar Abbas; the harm counts against the United States, not Iran.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

A sixth day of US-Iran strikes in the Strait of Hormuz is scored against the United States, not Iran.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

A fifth day of US-Iran strikes in the Strait of Hormuz is scored against the United States, not Iran.

A documented mass-execution event or formal international atrocity finding is the next event that could move Iran's score toward the absolute floor.

Executions intensify at a multi-decade high as the US resumes a Hormuz naval blockade.

Executions intensify at a multi-decade high, but the near-floor score cannot fall further.

Executions intensify at a multi-decade high, but the near-floor score cannot fall further.

Political executions reach a multi-decade high, but the near-floor score cannot fall much further.

US-Iran talks resume July 11 in Doha. A documented lethal crackdown on political rivals would move Iran's score toward the floor.

US-Iran talks resume July 11 in Doha. A documented lethal crackdown on political rivals would move Iran's score toward the floor.

A documented lethal crackdown on mourners or political rivals during the funeral window would move Iran's score toward the floor.

New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei barred from his father's July 9 burial over fear of assassination; June executions exceed 108.

A documented lethal crackdown on mourners or political rivals during the funeral window (through July 9) would move Iran's score toward the floor.

141 June executions on record; Khamenei burial July 9; Fallahi sentence continues priced 784-plus year-to-date pattern; US-Iran talks resume July 11.

A documented lethal crackdown on mourners, demonstrators, or political rivals during the Khamenei funeral window (July 4-9) constitutes a new scored harm event…

Funeral Day 2 with Mojtaba absent; Fallahi death sentence July 1 own-conduct but priced in 784-plus YTD pattern; US-Iran talks paused to July 11.

A documented new mass-repression or lethal crackdown during the Khamenei funeral window (July 4-9) would constitute a new scored harm event. Mojtaba absent fro…

Khamenei funeral opens July 4 — first Supreme Leader transition in 35 years; funeral is procedural; US-Iran talks paused to July 11; no new scored own-conduct …

A documented new mass-repression or lethal crackdown during the Khamenei funeral window (July 4-9) would constitute a new scored harm event. Documented de-esca…

Khamenei state funeral July 4-9 is a procedural event; US-Iran talks paused; no new Iranian own-conduct harm in window; protest-suppression watch flag open thr…

A documented new mass-repression or lethal crackdown during the Khamenei funeral window (July 4-9) would constitute a new scored harm event. Documented de-esca…

A distinct civilian mass-casualty event from Hormuz navigation — not yet in evidence — would be a new scored threshold event toward the floor. Documented de-es…

784-plus executions year-to-date (37-year high); Hormuz central channel mined; Gulf strikes continue already-priced arc; near-floor reinforced.

A distinct civilian mass-casualty event from Hormuz navigation — not yet in evidence — would be a new scored threshold event toward the floor. Documented de-es…

Tehran did not confirm Doha talks June 30; Hormuz central channel mined; 784-plus executions year-to-date (37-year high); near-floor reinforced.

Iran's June 28 Gulf strikes are Iran's own negative conduct — scored against Iran; 784-plus executions year-to-date (37-year high); near-floor reinforced witho…

784-plus executions year-to-date — a 37-year high; execution rate unchanged after the June nuclear framework period; hunger strikes Week 126-plus across 56 pri…

784-plus executions year-to-date — a 37-year high; executions continued through the Islamabad nuclear framework period; hunger strikes Week 126-plus across 56 …

784-plus executions year-to-date — a 37-year high; 120-plus consecutive weeks of hunger strikes across 56 prisons; near-floor reinforced.

31 executions in four days (June 13-16) — one every three hours; 784-plus year-to-date, a 37-year high; near-floor reinforced.

784-plus executions in 2026 — a 37-year high; 78 protesters at risk of expedited execution; 125 consecutive weeks of prison hunger strikes.

784+ executions YTD 2026 at 37-year political high; 78+ protesters under expedited execution risk; 125th consecutive hunger-strike week across 56 prisons.

784+ executions YTD 2026 at 37-year political high; 125th consecutive hunger-strike week; 78+ protesters under imminent death sentence.

784+ executions YTD 2026; 126th consecutive weekly prison protest across 56 facilities; three protest-linked executions; 78 at imminent execution risk.

784 executions YTD 2026; 125th consecutive weekly prison protest; ACC and BND at dimensional minimums.

2,159 executions in 2025 (highest since 1981); 40+ political hangings in 2026 including protest-linked executions.

Detentions, executions, and sanctions ongoing; no new in-window mover; near-floor confirmed.

775 executions reported in 2026, including 32 political prisoners March through early June; near-floor confirmed.

31+ political executions since March 19; five more imminent per NCRI June 9 report.

Amnesty documents 6,000+ arrests and at least 39 political executions in 2026; 124th-week execution-campaign continuation.

124th-week No-to-Executions campaign; 2 Kurdish political prisoners executed June 1; 784+ YTD; 40+ political executions.

784+ executions YTD; one political prisoner executed every 49 hours; five more face imminent execution.

784 executions YTD; five political prisoners face imminent execution; 127th week of prison protests.

784 executions YTD; 126th consecutive week of prison execution protests; secret political executions June 1.

612+ executions YTD; 125th consecutive week of prison execution protests across 56 facilities.

612 executions YTD; 49+ hanged since late May; 124th consecutive week of anti-execution protests across 56 facilities.

612 executions YTD; June 1 secret executions of Kurdish prisoners; June 3 execution of January protester Avari; 41+ at imminent risk.

June 1–2 execution of three uprising-linked prisoners; approximately 37 political prisoners executed since March 19; Naghdi and Amiri brothers at imminent risk.

600+ executions YTD 2026 including 39+ political prisoners; Arman Marefati at imminent execution risk; 88-day internet shutdown lifted May 26.

NCRI June 2: Arman Marefati at imminent execution risk; 600+ executions YTD 2026; 123rd week of No-to-Executions-Tuesday protest.

June 1 secret execution of 2 Kurdish political prisoners; 600+ executions YTD 2026; single dominant extremity holds at 2.5.

SCALE-FLOOR-RULING re-affirmed: execution surge (22 political hangings in 6 weeks; 1,639 in 2025) is a single dominant extremity, not multi-category 0.0 thresh…

SCALE-FLOOR-RULING re-affirmed; partial internet restoration (May 25, ~40% traffic) is reactive, not an improvement signal.

SCALE-FLOOR-RULING re-affirmed; internet restored May 25 after 88-day blackout — partial reactive restoration is not an improvement signal.

Scale-floor ruling: 88-day internet blackout concurrent with mass arrests and 39 political executions during blackout period.

Scale-floor proximity hold; Amnesty 2025: 2,159 executions — highest since 1981, 80% of global total.